Trump, Iran-Centered Policy, and the Taliban

Introduction

The Trump administration’s foreign policy in South Asia was marked by a firm stance against Iran’s regional and nuclear ambitions. With worsening security conditions in Pakistan, many analysts suggest that Washington may have found it pragmatic to engage with the Taliban to secure its objectives in the region. The recent release of an American hostage in Afghanistan has reignited speculation about U.S.-Taliban relations, particularly in light of the presence of Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, in Kabul. Additionally, the U.S. decision to lift a long-standing bounty on a key Taliban figure signals a possible recalibration of its policy.

Trump’s Maximum Pressure on Iran

After reimposing sanctions on Iran and withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Trump administration pursued a policy of economic and diplomatic isolation against Tehran. The war in Israel—initiated by Iran-backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah—along with direct Iranian attacks and strikes by the Iranian-backed Houthis, has significantly reduced the prospects for diplomacy. Top U.S. national security officials held strong anti-Iranian regime positions, reinforcing a hardline approach.

Engagement with the Taliban and the Role of Khalilzad

Despite the Taliban’s historical ties to extremist groups, the Trump administration engaged in direct negotiations, culminating in the 2020 Doha Agreement, which set the stage for the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The recent release of American hostage George Glezmann, held in Afghanistan for over two years, has further fueled speculation that U.S.-Taliban communication channels remain active.

Observers believe that Zalmay Khalilzad, a key architect of the Doha Agreement, played a more significant role than merely negotiating the hostage’s release. A long-time advocate for pragmatic engagement with the Taliban, Khalilzad was instrumental in shaping the Trump administration’s Afghanistan strategy. Given his deep connections with Taliban leadership, many suspect his involvement extended beyond mere diplomatic facilitation. His prior negotiations in 2020 set a precedent for backchannel deals, raising questions about whether concessions were made to the Taliban in exchange for Glezmann’s release.

The U.S. Lifts Bounty on Sirajuddin Haqqani

Further fueling speculation of a shift in U.S. strategy, reports surfaced on March 22, 2025, that the United States had lifted a $10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s acting interior minister. A former leader of the notorious Haqqani Network, Haqqani has been linked to high-profile attacks and kidnappings, including that of U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl in 2014. Despite the reported removal of the bounty, the FBI’s website continues to list the reward, reflecting ambiguity in the official U.S. stance.

The timing of this decision—just days after Glezmann’s release—has led analysts to speculate about a broader U.S. strategy to engage with the Taliban. The release, facilitated through negotiations involving U.S. officials and Qatari mediators, marks the third such hostage release since January, suggesting an emerging pattern of backchannel diplomacy.

Pakistan’s Deteriorating Security and Regional Calculations

Pakistan’s growing instability—marked by militant insurgencies and economic turmoil—has raised doubts about its reliability as a security partner. This uncertainty may have pushed the Trump administration to seek alternative regional actors to counterbalance Iran and maintain influence in Afghanistan. If Pakistan proves ineffective, a more transactional relationship with the Taliban could align with U.S. interests in the region.

Taliban in Power in 2025

Despite the Taliban’s draconian restrictions on women’s education and employment, the group presents certain strategic advantages for a deal-making president like Trump.

1. The Taliban have consolidated control over Afghanistan in a way not seen in decades, ensuring a form of stability.
2. Reports indicate that the Taliban have cooperated with U.S. intelligence in countering Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan.
3. Corruption and warlordism—longstanding issues in Afghanistan—have been largely eliminated under Taliban rule.
4. The Taliban maintain a strict top-down chain of command, providing a level of internal discipline and predictability.

While their policies on women’s rights remain a major point of contention, a pragmatic, deal-driven approach might see Washington leveraging their governance structure for regional stability.

Strategic Implications

The Trump administration’s evolving relationship with the Taliban appears to be guided by pragmatism rather than ideological alignment. If cooperation with the Taliban serves to counter Iran and maintain regional stability in the absence of a strong Pakistani role, Washington may deepen these engagements. The removal of the bounty on Haqqani and the recent hostage release highlight the complexity of these dealings.

Conclusion

Balancing Iran’s containment, managing Pakistan’s instability, and maintaining leverage in Afghanistan reflects the Trump administration’s strategic calculus. While engaging with the Taliban remains controversial, figures like Khalilzad have demonstrated that diplomatic backchannels can yield results. The removal of the bounty on Haqqani raises further questions about whether the U.S. is quietly laying the groundwork for deeper cooperation with the Taliban. The key question remains: Is this a short-term tactical maneuver, or does it signal a longer-term shift in U.S. strategy?

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