South Asia on the Brink: The India–Pakistan Escalation

South Asia on the Brink: The India–Pakistan Escalation and the Prospects of Becoming a Theatre for International Confrontation

Amid the international community’s focus on pressing issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea, a significant and quiet escalation is unfolding in South Asia, where India and Pakistan — both nuclear-armed nations — are teetering on the edge of potential conflict. The exchange of accusations and cross-border shelling evokes some of the tensest moments the region has experienced since the Kargil conflict in the late 1990s.
However, the current escalation transcends traditional bilateral concerns, evolving into a clear arena of international rivalry. India, a rising strategic partner of the United States, is strengthening its economic and technological ties with the West, while Pakistan is deepening its strategic alliance with China. This dynamic introduces a complex geopolitical layer to the crisis, positioning South Asia as a potential focal point for international power struggles.
These tensions are further compounded by the recent killing of Abdul Rauf Azhar, a prominent leader of the internationally designated terrorist group “Jaish-e-Mohammed.” This event raises new questions about Pakistan’s ongoing ties with extremist organizations. Azhar’s presence within Pakistani borders, despite his designation on UN Security Council sanctions lists, reaffirms longstanding Indian and American concerns about Islamabad’s dual approach to militant groups.
This incident comes at a particularly sensitive moment for Islamabad, which is attempting to improve its standing before the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and mitigate increasing international scrutiny.

A Complex Regional and International Landscape Amid an Absence of Effective Containment Initiatives
Despite the international community’s broad expressions of concern, responses have largely remained within the framework of general appeals for restraint. The United Nations, alongside Washington, Beijing, Moscow, Paris, and the European Union, issued statements urging de-escalation and warning against the grave consequences of conflict between two nuclear-armed states. Yet, these calls have lacked the substance of a practical, coordinated diplomatic initiative capable of containing the crisis before it deteriorates further.
Simultaneously, clear alignments have begun to emerge. Israel was quick to declare its support for India’s right to defend its national security, while Turkey and Azerbaijan expressed full solidarity with Pakistan, denouncing what they termed unjustified provocations. Amid these divisions, the United Arab Emirates, having previously brokered mediation in 2021—offered to resume its role as a peace facilitator. Iran too expressed its desire for de-escalation. However, the broader Arab position has largely oscillated between general statements of concern and hesitant posturing, without crystallizing a unified collective initiative.
This critical juncture necessitates the formulation of a balanced diplomatic proposal grounded in respect for national sovereignty, the safeguarding of regional security, and a comprehensive settlement of the Kashmir conflict’s historical roots—ensuring regional stability and preempting the region’s descent into a proxy battleground for international powers.
The Arab Position: Diplomatic Concern and Absence of a Unified Vision
Several Arab states—including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Algeria—have expressed concern over the current escalation, calling for restraint and a return to diplomatic engagement as the sole avenue for preventing further deterioration. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain close and balanced relations with New Delhi and Islamabad, theoretically positioning them to assume a mediating role. The UAE’s successful mediation initiative in 2021 underscores this potential, should a unified Arab diplomatic proposal materialize.
These positions are shaped by the Gulf states’ deeply interlinked economic interests with both India and Pakistan, particularly in the areas of labor, trade, and large-scale investment projects. Any significant security deterioration in South Asia would inevitably impact these vital partnerships. Egypt, while closely monitoring the region’s security and strategic developments, has yet to issue a definitive position on the matter.
Regional and International Entanglement: Washington and Beijing in the Background
The India–Pakistan escalation cannot be isolated from the broader context of U.S.–China competition in Asia. In recent years, U.S.–India relations have witnessed remarkable growth, with Washington keen to position New Delhi as a regional counterweight to Beijing and an alternative destination for Western investment and major multinational enterprises.
Conversely, Pakistan maintains strong military and economic ties with China, encompassing infrastructure, energy, and defense collaborations. The current crisis represents a potential testing ground for both sides’ ability to safeguard their strategic interests, amidst growing indications that the escalation may evolve into an indirect confrontation between the two great powers on South Asian soil, exacerbated by the absence of effective regional security arrangements.
Future Risks: The Most Dangerous Escalation in Two Decades
The ongoing escalation represents the gravest threat to regional security in over twenty years, especially given both sides’ nuclear arsenals, a history of border clashes, and pervasive mutual distrust. There is a real danger that miscalculations could trigger a full-scale regional conflict, with catastrophic repercussions for South Asia’s stability and global security architecture.
The divergence in international positions and the absence of a collective containment mechanism—whether through the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation or the United Nations Security Council—further complicates the situation and undermines the prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
Potential Strategic Implications of a Prolonged Conflict
1. An Intensified High-Tech Arms Race
Continued hostilities would further fuel the arms race between India and Pakistan, particularly in the fields of missile defense, drone warfare, and military artificial intelligence. Such an escalation would not only drain both countries’ resources but also heighten the risk of strategic miscalculations, increasing the likelihood of a large-scale conflict.
2. Mounting Economic Pressure on Pakistan
Defense spending represents a substantial burden on Pakistan’s already fragile economy. As military expenditures rise, the government’s ability to finance critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure will deteriorate, exacerbating social and economic crises and threatening internal stability in a country already grappling with chronic challenges.
3. The Risk of Becoming a Chinese Military Testing Ground
Given the close military relationship between Beijing and Islamabad, there are growing concerns that China might exploit the escalation as an opportunity to test its new defense systems under near-operational conditions. Should this occur, it could draw other international powers into the conflict, intensifying global geopolitical polarization.
4. A Threat to Gulf Regional Balance and Stability
The Gulf states have long sought to maintain balanced relations with both India and Pakistan, given their strategic roles in the region’s food security, energy supplies, and trade flows. However, a prolonged crisis could compel some Gulf capitals to reconsider their positions or gradually align with one side, threatening the unity of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and disrupting regional cooperation frameworks.
5. A New Frontier of Media Disinformation in Asymmetric Conflict
The current escalation has been characterized by an unprecedented surge in false reports and disinformation propagated by both sides. This campaign has transcended conventional propaganda to become a sophisticated form of psychological warfare, aimed at manipulating domestic public opinion, misleading international audiences, and shaping perceptions to serve political and military objectives.
Such media strategies impair accurate assessments of the political and operational landscape, foster a climate of distrust, and obstruct diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis.
Conclusion: The Urgent Need for a Comprehensive Settlement to Prevent Catastrophe
The renewed India–Pakistan escalation has transcended the boundaries of a regional dispute and evolved into an international flashpoint threatening the stability of South Asia, the security of the Gulf region, and the balance of the global order.
Reaching a comprehensive, peaceful settlement through effective diplomatic channels is no longer a mere option—it is a strategic necessity. This settlement must go beyond temporary de-escalation, addressing the deep-rooted causes of the conflict, foremost among them the Kashmir issue, through mechanisms that safeguard the rights of local populations, respect national sovereignty, maintain regional balance, and prevent the region from descending further into the unknown.

This is a translation of the article published in Arabic on the Al-Ain News platform

Dr. Ubaidullah Burhani
Academic researcher and political affairs writer, American of Afghan origin

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