Rivers Under Siege: Afghanistan’s Struggle for Water Sovereignty Amid Regional Rivalries

In a volatile geopolitical climate already defined by territorial rivalries and resource scarcity, Afghanistan’s water management aspirations—once seemingly within reach due to newfound security and relative internal stability—are now under imminent threat. The convergence of multiple alarming developments may derail Kabul’s ability to assert its rights over its own rivers: the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India, mounting water shortages in Central Asia, and Iran’s escalating pressure over Helmand River flows.

A Brewing Storm: India’s Hardline on Indus Waters

India’s recent declaration after the Pakistan sponsored terrorist attack in Pehlgam in Indian administered Kashmir, that Pakistan will no longer receive water “over which India has rights”, as stated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marks a dangerous turn in South Asia’s hydro-politics. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered in 1960, has long been a rare success in Indo-Pakistani diplomacy. Its breakdown, however, doesn’t merely signify heightened tensions between two nuclear-armed states. It also sends shockwaves upstream—directly affecting Afghanistan.

Why? Because Afghanistan shares the Kabul and Kunar rivers with Pakistan—rivers that merge into the Indus basin. Afghanistan’s attempts to assert water sovereignty, particularly with plans for new dams such as those on the Kunar River, are suddenly entangled in a regional web of contestation and suspicion.

A poignant example of how regional tensions threaten Afghanistan’s water sovereignty is the legacy of the late Dr. Tetsu Nakamura, a Japanese humanitarian whose canal projects transformed parts of eastern Afghanistan, particularly Nangarhar Province. His efforts brought life back to thousands of hectares of arid land, improving food security and livelihoods for countless families. However, projects like Nakamura’s canal—non-political, humanitarian, and locally transformative—now face existential risks not just from instability on the ground, but from the rising tide of regional water politics. As neighboring countries entrench themselves in hardline stances over transboundary water flows, Afghanistan’s internal development efforts are increasingly perceived as threats by downstream states. What was once a beacon of community-led resilience is now vulnerable to being caught in the crossfire of strategic calculations, coercive diplomacy, and competing claims—threatening both the physical sustainability of such projects and the spirit of international solidarity that made them possible.

With Pakistan feeling cornered by India’s aggressive shift, Islamabad may attempt to pressure Kabul to secure what it perceives as its rightful water flows, turning Afghanistan into a pawn in a larger water confrontation. As Doctor Nakamura was killed in a time when the Indus water treaty was on, what would happen to a canal and dam project on when the  Indus water treaty is no longer in effect.

China’s Dam Diplomacy: A New Frontline of Pressure

To make matters worse, just days after the clashes between India and Pakistan and suspension of the Indus water treaty, satellite images indicate that  China has rapidly increased construction on the Mohmand Dam in Pakistan’s northwest—a project with strategic implications far beyond power generation. China’s involvement in Pakistani hydropower is not mere investment; it is a calculated extension of its regional influence.

This development amplifies pressure on Afghanistan from two fronts: Pakistan and China, potentially forming a united front to undermine or stall Afghan water projects under the guise of “regional stability” or “downstream impacts.”

Central Asia’s Silent Crisis: Shrinking Rivers, Rising Tensions

Meanwhile, Central Asia is reeling from a deepening water crisis. As climate change accelerates glacial melt and upstream nations like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan build more dams, downstream countries—especially Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan—are sounding alarms. In this tense hydrological environment, Afghanistan’s expanding canal and dam projects are being met with suspicion and growing unease.

The satellite images of unexplained spill, which may have been a planned diversion, mistake or sabotage  from Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa canal project earlier this year stoked regional anxiety and highlighted how fragile and reactive water diplomacy has become in the region. Every cubic meter of water diverted within Afghanistan now ripples across borders with political consequences.

Iran’s Escalating Pressure: The Helmand River Dispute

The Islamic Republic of Iran has also entered the fray. For years, Tehran has demanded increased water flow from Afghanistan via the Helmand River, a vital source of water for Iran’s drought-stricken Sistan-Baluchestan province. As Afghanistan builds infrastructure—such as the Kamal Khan Dam—to regulate Helmand’s flow, Iran has accused Kabul of violating past water agreements, despite Afghanistan’s consistent claims to sovereign usage rights.

This dispute is fast becoming a flashpoint. Iranian officials have threatened to take unilateral action if their demands are not met. Reports of border skirmishes and increased Iranian military presence near the river reflect the seriousness of Tehran’s position. In the worst-case scenario, Afghanistan could find itself confronted on all sides—by Pakistan, China, Central Asian neighbors, and Iran—each demanding control or influence over its river flows.

A Region Ready to Push Back: The Strategic Squeeze

Afghanistan’s ambition to finally manage its water resources—after decades of chaos—should be a story of sovereignty and development. Instead, it is becoming one of regional resistance, strategic encirclement, and coercion. From India’s weaponization of the Indus, to China’s dam diplomacy, to Pakistan’s demonstrated interferences and sabotages in the past, to Iran’s hardline stance on Helmand, and Central Asia’s water insecurity, Afghanistan is being boxed in.

If left unchecked, this hydrological pressure campaign could cripple Afghanistan’s developmental vision and render its post-war reconstruction efforts ineffective. The very rivers that symbolize national revival risk being turned into sources of external domination.

Conclusion: A Call for Sovereignty, Strategy, and Regional Diplomacy

It is time to recognize that water is not just a resource—it is Afghanistan’s next geopolitical frontier. The Afghan government, with support from international institutions, must codify its riparian rights, strengthen transboundary agreements on its terms, and proactively counter disinformation campaigns by neighbors. It must also invest in water diplomacy as rigorously as it has invested in water infrastructure.

Afghanistan deserves full sovereignty over its rivers. But sovereignty is not declared—it is defended through law, diplomacy, and strategic foresight. Without this, the country’s hard-won stability could evaporate as quickly as its unprotected water resources.

Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Maturity Outpaces Turkey’s Ambiguous Role in Regional Diplomacy