What Do We Know About the New “Trump Corridor”? And Why Is Turkey Upset?

After the Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I traveled to the region, wandering through lands that had long been under Armenian occupation, documenting my observations and broadcasting successive reports from there.

One of the most fascinating sights was the Aras River, which holds deep historical and literary significance in the collective consciousness of the Turkic world. Its banks were connected by the enchanting Khudafarin Bridge, linking Azerbaijan and Iran. On the southern side in Iranian Azerbaijan, Iranians strolled leisurely, while Azerbaijanis relaxed in the shade on the opposite bank.

What struck me most at the time was the proposed route of what was then called the “Zangezur Corridor” before the name became widely known. There, at the junction of the borders of Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the land was untouched by urbanization. When I visited in 2021, Turkish construction companies had just begun building highways.

Turkey was eagerly pushing for the opening of this corridor because Armenia had severed Turkey’s direct connection to its Turkic brethren—leaving no passage from Turkey to Nakhchivan and onward to Azerbaijan except through this route.

Had the corridor opened, Turkey would have gained direct access to its sisters in the Caucasus and Central Asia. However, Iran, Russia, and Armenia—each for their own reasons—stood as obstacles in its way.

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Tension Between Moscow and Baku: A Net Win for Washington

The strength of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations and Azerbaijan’s victory in Karabakh significantly weakened Moscow’s grip on the Caucasus.

Russia grew increasingly frustrated with Baku’s growing independence from its influence. Tensions peaked when an Azerbaijani civilian plane was shot down, prompting President Aliyev to openly defy Moscow, effectively declaring an end to Russian dominance over his country. Russia, using its usual tactics of cold pressure, tried to bring Baku back in line, but Aliyev stood firm.

However, he knew Azerbaijan couldn’t confront Russia alone—a country that had once occupied Baku. Relying solely on Turkey’s support wasn’t enough. So, he made a decisive move: allying with the United States. It’s likely that Israel, a close friend of Azerbaijan, encouraged and supported this shift. Thus, Aliyev secured an American security guarantee against Russia and headed to Washington.

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Will Armenia Break Free from Moscow’s Grip?

Armenia had received military support from Russia during the Karabakh war and remained heavily dependent on Moscow economically, militarily, and logistically. However, pressure from the Armenian diaspora pushed Yerevan to build bridges with the West.

The defeat in Karabakh was a turning point—Armenia felt Moscow hadn’t provided sufficient support and began seeking alternatives.

In truth, Russia never wanted either side to achieve a decisive victory, preferring to keep both under its influence. But it miscalculated, angering both.

Armenia began publicly questioning the presence of Russian military bases on its soil, straining relations further. It then moved closer to Ankara, securing promises of economic and energy support in exchange for normalizing ties with Azerbaijan.

But this wasn’t enough to counter Moscow, so Yerevan knocked on Washington’s door—allowing the peace process with Azerbaijan to become a publicity stunt led by Trump.

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A Crushing Blow to Russian Influence

The cost of the Ukraine war for Russia has been far heavier than many anticipated—not just in military and economic losses, but in eroding its global influence.

Moscow has already lost ground in Syria and now finds itself powerless to stop deep geopolitical shifts in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan and Armenia, once firmly in its orbit, are now sliding toward the U.S., while Putin remains bogged down in Ukraine.

Now, Washington is hosting both countries’ leaders, with Trump theatrically announcing peace between them on live TV. The U.S. didn’t just mediate—it took control of the Zangezur Corridor, securing operational rights for 99 years, as if placing a “protective mark” against Moscow.

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From “Zangezur” to “Trump’s Road”

As I stood on the banks of the Aras River, gazing toward Armenia’s distant border, I suspected the Zangezur Corridor would one day open—and that the road would pass through the hills I stood upon. But if someone had told me then that Americans would be the ones managing it, I wouldn’t have believed them.

When the agreement was announced in Washington—along with the corridor’s rebranding as TRIPP (Trump’s International Peace and Prosperity Road)—the news displeased Turkey, sparking a mix of shock and questions: “What’s America doing there?”

Ankara’s official statements expressed satisfaction with the road’s opening and the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, with President Erdoğan congratulating Aliyev and Pashinyan.

But behind the scenes, there was clear frustration—this corridor, now under U.S. control, was the strategic passage Turkey had long dreamed of as its gateway into Central Asia. It wasn’t just about trade routes but also gas and oil pipelines, heralding a massive energy flow.

But what if relations with Washington sour tomorrow? While Armenia retains ownership of the corridor, the U.S. has secured operational rights for nearly a century—making it nearly impossible to dislodge.

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A New Geopolitical Order in the Caucasus and Asia

Turkey, the U.S., Armenia, and Azerbaijan have all expressed satisfaction with the deal, while Iran and Russia have made no secret of their displeasure—joined by China, albeit from a distance.

Washington has now planted a foothold at Asia’s gateway, positioning itself to access resource-rich nations—particularly Kazakhstan’s oil and gas—potentially freeing Europe from energy dependence on Russia.

With Moscow weakened, Beijing may have to rethink its Belt and Road projects. Meanwhile, the U.S. will use this corridor to pressure Russia in the north, China in the east, and Iran in the south.

And there’s more: the deal also opens the door for a potential U.S. military presence in Armenia, though the details remain unclear.

The Caucasus is entering a deep transformation. One question lingers: Does the U.S. truly want to end the Ukraine war when its influence grows every time Russia weakens?

 

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