The Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that U.S. President Donald Trump committed a geopolitical mistake when he imposed tariffs on India— a decision that prompted New Delhi to reassess its relationship with Beijing, which had long been strained.
According to the paper, the United States miscalculated geopolitically by inadvertently pushing Beijing and New Delhi toward closer cooperation rather than estrangement. This rapprochement, it argued, could have significant implications for global geopolitics.
The article noted that the American political elite has long viewed China as the greatest geopolitical and economic threat to U.S. interests. Former President Barack Obama justified the need to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership as part of a strategy to outpace China in shaping a new and advanced framework for trade and economic relations in one of the world’s most dynamic regions.
This focus on countering the “Chinese threat” led U.S. policymakers to seek ways of distancing Moscow and New Delhi from Beijing. Such efforts were underpinned by the belief that depriving China of strategic partners such as Russia and India would limit its capacity to compete with the United States in the Asia-Pacific.
However, when Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports—punishing New Delhi for continuing to buy Russian oil— and even described India’s economy as “dead,” this was not merely a trade measure but, according to the paper, a clear signal of geopolitical disrespect and rejection of cooperation. India’s political elite took the move very seriously.
Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior advisor on trade and manufacturing, was asked to clarify the White House’s reasoning regarding India’s imports of Russian oil.
According to the Russian newspaper, Navarro argued that the rise in Russian oil imports was not due to increased domestic consumption but rather the opportunism of India’s largest refineries. These companies had turned India into a major hub for refining Russian crude—purchasing it at discounted prices, refining it, and then exporting petroleum products to Europe, Africa, and Asia.
Navarro’s central point, the paper added, reflected a traditional profit-driven outlook: India’s trade surplus with the United States, approaching $50 billion annually due to high average tariff protection, was in his view being used to buy Russian oil.
Yet, as the newspaper highlighted, Navarro ignored the fact that India’s imports of American oil rose by 30% in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
Despite Washington’s tariff hike, the Reserve Bank of India did not revise its GDP growth forecast for the year, keeping it at 6.5%—an impressive figure for an economy previously dismissed as “dead.” India’s GDP now stands at around $4 trillion.
By imposing a 50% tariff, Washington appears to be pressuring New Delhi to redirect its purchases of oil and weapons toward American suppliers, thereby securing a long-term market for U.S. firms in South Asia’s largest state.
Meanwhile, India and China have begun a process of rapprochement, working to resolve disputes and strengthen bilateral cooperation.
On August 18, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited India, where talks were held regarding the contested Himalayan border.
In the 2024/25 fiscal year, China was India’s second-largest trading partner, with trade reaching $127.7 billion. Between 2015 and 2022, trade between the two countries grew by nearly 90%, with an average annual growth rate of 12.87%.
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