While Israeli propaganda projects Tel Aviv as a “regional superpower” reshaping the Middle East, the reality tells a different story. Turkey, working quietly but deliberately, is reclaiming its historical stature in the region—not as an imperial force, but as a leading power with a civilizational and humanitarian vision rooted in “participation, not domination.” In a region where Islam shapes much of the political landscape, Ankara enjoys a level of acceptance Israel cannot match.
On December 18, 2024, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared: “Every recent event in our region—especially in Syria—reminds us of this truth: Turkey is larger than Turkey. We cannot limit our horizons as a nation.” Days later, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli added: “History teaches us that the road to Jerusalem begins in Damascus. If Damascus is secure, then the time will come for Jerusalem to be secure as well.” He warned Tel Aviv that any designs on Damascus would be met with “an Ottoman slap in Jerusalem.”
Analysts see these statements as part of a broader civilizational narrative in which “New Turkey” repositions itself as heir to the Ottoman legacy—an empire that once ruled for six centuries. This vision unsettles not only Israel, but also Washington. Yet, Ankara’s Islamic-oriented policies resonate with many Sunni Muslims and political Islamists, offering an alternative model that appeals to reformist movements across the region.
As Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign affairs correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov notes: “Turkey will have the most influential voice in Damascus in the coming period, and its clout is set to grow far beyond that.” Erdoğan’s ambitions, Trofimov adds, are closer than ever to fruition—an arc of influence stretching across former Ottoman lands, from Libya to Somalia.
Turkey Expands While Israel Contracts
Israel’s influence, by contrast, appears geographically constrained—locked into the West Bank, Gaza, and a contested Lebanese border. Turkey’s reach now extends far beyond its Ottoman frontiers.
A study by Atlantic Council analysts Sophie Siebens-Bekash and Simon Seroussi highlights Israel’s declining footprint in Africa. Following its devastating assault on Gaza, Israel’s presence in Africa has shrunk to below 40%. While it once had 33 embassies across the continent in the 1960s, today it maintains just 13 diplomatic missions, three economic offices, and one military attaché. Moreover, African nations have increasingly branded Israel as a pariah state, condemning it for crimes against humanity.
Turkey, meanwhile, has filled the vacuum. From just 12 embassies in Africa in 2002, Ankara now operates 44. Trade between Turkey and Africa has surged from $5.4 billion to over $40 billion in two decades. It has signed defense agreements with countries across West and East Africa—including Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda—and has become a major arms supplier. In 2011, Turkey played a leading humanitarian role in famine-stricken Somalia, later establishing its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu in 2017. In 2019, it intervened militarily in Libya, backing the Tripoli government against General Khalifa Haftar.
Unlike France, Israel, or even Russia’s Wagner Group, Turkey is seen across much of Africa as a less problematic partner, combining Islamic affinity with pragmatic diplomacy.
Strategic Advantages Across Regions
Turkey’s appeal stretches beyond Africa. In Asia, which has vast Muslim-majority regions, Israel’s influence has waned dramatically since October 7, while Turkey is increasingly seen as a political and cultural model by Central Asian states.
Ankara’s advantages are multidimensional:
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It is simultaneously a European economy, a Middle Eastern power, a Mediterranean maritime hub, and an Islamic nation.
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Its Turkic identity gives it leverage in Central Asia, where Russia’s decline following the Ukraine war has left a vacuum Turkey is rapidly filling.
On the global stage, Turkey also outweighs Israel economically and diplomatically. In 2021, Turkish exports to the EU surpassed $93 billion, compared to Israel’s $18 billion. Ankara has become one of the EU’s largest trade partners, while Israel remains a marginal player.
The Emerging Balance
Turkey’s project—rooted in history, religion, and present-day realities—positions it as a more sustainable and inspiring model for the Middle East. Unlike Israel’s arrogant and militarized approach, which has buried its regional ambitions under the rubble of Gaza, Turkey’s ascent is framed as participatory and civilizational.
Simply put: Ankara’s long-term trajectory is upward, while Tel Aviv’s is increasingly constrained.
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