Turkey and Israel After the Break: Armed Confrontation or Regional Rivalry?

For more than 15 years, Turkish–Israeli relations have been marked by persistent tension, shaped by overlapping factors of military strength, geopolitical rivalries, and economic interests. These dynamics have created lines of indirect confrontation, complicated further by minority politics in the region and each country’s ties with Western powers.

Although both states possess formidable military capabilities, experts interviewed by Al Jazeera stress that the real significance of these forces lies in deterrence, rather than readiness for direct conflict. Both Ankara and Tel Aviv understand the heavy cost of escalation and the risks inherent in outright confrontation.

Yet Israel’s repeated declarations of regional ambitions—along with its expanding military footprint in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen—have heightened Turkish concerns about threats to its national security. Ankara’s recent decision to cut trade ties with Israel and close its ports to Israeli goods is seen as part of this escalating pattern, a sharp response to Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza. The move signals that direct confrontation is no longer unthinkable, even if both sides still prefer to keep their rivalry indirect.

This report draws on the insights of regional experts to examine the sources of Turkish and Israeli power, the potential arenas of confrontation, and the tools of pressure both countries wield—ranging from minority politics and economic leverage to their entangled relationships with Western powers, particularly the United States.

---

The Role of Military Power

At first glance, the massive military arsenals of Turkey and Israel appear to be the cornerstone of their rivalry. But Dr. Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, argues that military strength is less decisive than other forms of influence.

According to Makki, armed force serves primarily as a deterrent, playing a crucial role in preventing a direct clash. “I don’t believe either side is currently prepared to use military power against the other,” he notes. “It remains more a pressure card and show of force than a tool ready for deployment.”

Omer Ozkizilcik, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, adds that Turkey and Israel are among the few regional actors able to project power beyond their borders. Yet he highlights a key distinction: Turkey, benefiting from soft power and regional acceptance, has the ability to sustain and integrate its influence in areas where it is active. Israel, by contrast, excels in air power and cyber capabilities but struggles to maintain lasting influence outside its borders.

Security analyst Osama Khalid offers a detailed comparison of their military strengths:

Turkey’s military advantages

• Advanced air defense, interception, and early warning systems.

• Strong intelligence capabilities with reach into foreign theaters.

• Robust political leadership able to make and execute strategic decisions.

• Growing drone warfare capabilities.

• Expanding missile and naval assets compared to regional peers.

• Vast geographical depth, unlike Israel.

• Large demographic base, providing manpower for sustained conflict.

Israel’s military advantages

• Unmatched cyber capabilities, the most advanced in the Middle East.

• Sophisticated human intelligence and recruitment operations.

• Superior air force and layered missile-defense systems, including cutting-edge stealth technologies.

• Long-range missile arsenal covering most regional targets.

• Elite special forces with expertise in operating behind enemy lines.

• Political leadership that makes rapid decisions and seizes opportunities without hesitation.

In recent weeks, Turkey has taken concrete steps to prepare for potential escalation: strengthening air defense, reinforcing its civilian infrastructure, and constructing modern nuclear-resistant shelters. Ankara has also deployed a domestically produced “steel dome” defense system and moved to acquire Eurofighter jets to enhance its air power—clear signals that it intends to exploit weaknesses in regional deterrence and prepare for sudden shifts in the balance of power.

---

Political and Economic Pressure Points

Both Türkiye and Israel wield geopolitical influence that extends beyond their borders. Makki notes that Israel can pressure Turkey through ties with Kurdish groups in northern Syria and by supporting minorities elsewhere. Turkey, on the other hand, maintains leverage through its strong ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as alliances with major regional powers.

On the economic front, the break in trade relations has affected both sides. Turkey previously exported agricultural goods and other products to Israel, while Israeli tourism played a role in Turkey’s economy. Both now face disruptions, but experts argue that the economic pain is mutual rather than decisive.

Makki also points out that Israel once used its alliance with Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean gas dispute as a major pressure card against Turkey. Yet Ankara’s improving relations with Cairo and the Gulf have diminished the effectiveness of this bloc, closing off options for Tel Aviv.

Ozkizilcik adds that Turkey’s diplomatic outreach has boosted its acceptance in the region, while Israel faces relative isolation due to its policies, despite attempts to forge political and economic partnerships, including normalization deals.

---

The Minority Question

Over the past 15 years, Turkish–Israeli relations have often taken the form of indirect confrontation, where minority groups have become leverage points in the geopolitical struggle.

Makki notes that Israel’s ties with Kurdish groups remain ambiguous, though its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is more visible. The Druze community in southern Syria is another card Israel uses, seeking to undermine Turkey’s security through the Syrian arena.

Ozkizilcik, however, emphasizes that this is less about minority politics than about competing visions: “Turkey wants strong and stable neighbors, while Israel prefers fragmented or weak states to ensure its own security. Minorities like the Kurds or Druze are therefore tools, not allies, in Israel’s regional strategy.”

Khalid adds that Israeli support for the SDF and Druze raises Turkish fears of demographic and security shifts along its Syrian frontier. Yet Ankara’s counter-strategy has been to strengthen its internal defenses and address long-standing issues such as the PKK insurgency, limiting the long-term impact of minority politics.

---

Relations with the West

Western influence remains a decisive factor in Turkish–Israeli dynamics. Analysts caution against treating “the West” as monolithic, as European positions often diverge from Washington’s.

Europe, driven by pragmatic interests, seeks stability in the region and values Turkey as a key NATO member and Europe’s second-largest military power. While European capitals may differ in their sympathies—some leaning toward Israel, others pushing for mediation—most are wary of losing Turkey’s partnership.

The United States presents a more complex picture. Washington seeks to balance its interests with both Ankara and Tel Aviv but remains strongly aligned with Israel when push comes to shove, owing to Israel’s deep influence in U.S. policymaking and the strategic partnership between the two nations. Still, Turkey’s geography, population, and role in countering Russia give it bargaining power in Washington’s eyes.

Overall, Western powers prefer to avoid direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel, favoring mediation and de-escalation. Experts argue that Turkey’s state-building vision for the region aligns more closely with Western interests, while Israel’s strategy of exploiting fragmentation often runs counter to them.

---

A History of Tension

Since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident—when Israeli forces killed Turkish activists attempting to break the Gaza blockade—relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv have been strained by cycles of hostility and reconciliation. Despite occasional attempts at normalization, tensions have spiked at nearly every regional crisis, most recently during Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza since October 2023. Turkey’s decision to cut trade ties and close ports to Israeli goods marked another low point.

---

Outlook

The Middle East remains a volatile arena where the Turkish–Israeli rivalry is set to intensify. Both sides recognize that direct military conflict would be catastrophic, yet shifting regional dynamics, minority politics, and external alignments could generate unpredictable flashpoints.

For now, Ankara and Tel Aviv continue to compete in the realms of geopolitics, economics, and influence. But as history shows, each new crisis carries the potential to push their rivalry into uncharted territory.

Support Dawat Media Center

If there were ever a time to join us, it is now. Every contribution, however big or small, powers our journalism and sustains our future. Support the Dawat Media Center from as little as $/€10 – it only takes a minute. If you can, please consider supporting us with a regular amount each month. Thank you
DNB Bank AC # 0530 2294668
Account for international payments: NO15 0530 2294 668
Vipps: #557320

  Donate Here