On January 29, 2025, the three member states of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—announced their formal withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The decision came sixteen months after the Alliance was first established, a move widely understood as a direct response to ECOWAS sanctions, demands for a return to constitutional order, and what the three governments perceived as excessive Western interference in domestic politics.
Since then, the AES has sought to carve out a new path toward economic sovereignty and independence, with recent developments showing concrete steps toward restructuring key sectors and building new regional frameworks.
Moves Toward Economic Independence
The AES was founded under the Liptako-Gourma Charter, prioritizing joint defense, pooled resources to counter insecurity, and a regional framework to combat poverty and external manipulation. It also serves as a shield against sanctions imposed by institutions its members regard as dominated by Western interests.
The Alliance’s agenda reflects both frustration with former colonial powers and an ambition to seek a multipolar orientation, strengthening ties with partners such as Russia, China, and the BRICS bloc.
Monetary and Financial Initiatives
One of the Alliance’s most ambitious economic goals has been the introduction of a regional currency to replace the CFA franc, thereby enhancing monetary sovereignty and loosening dependence on colonial-era financial structures.
In May 2025, the AES announced the creation of the Confederation Bank for Investment and Development (BCID-AES), with an initial capital of 500 billion CFA francs. Its mandate is to finance infrastructure and development projects independently of international donors and lenders, many of whom impose political or structural conditions.
Trade, Mobility, and Integration
On January 29, 2025, the AES also launched a common passport to facilitate movement across borders, alongside harmonized trade measures:
- 0.5% import tariff on goods from non-member countries.
- Abolition of roaming charges within AES borders.
These policies are designed to foster market integration and regional interconnectivity, laying the foundation for a common internal market.
Resource Nationalism and Energy Policy
In mining and energy, AES states have pursued assertive reforms:
- Revoking outdated licenses.
- Prioritizing national interest through resource nationalization policies.
- Emphasizing local value addition rather than raw material exports.
In May 2025, AES energy regulators held a joint summit to coordinate energy policies, focusing on renewables and self-sufficiency.
Agriculture and Food Security
Agriculture remains at the core of the Alliance’s strategy:
- A grain export control policy was introduced to safeguard food security.
- The Sahel Seed Producers’ Alliance (APSA-Sahel) was launched to develop and promote indigenous seed varieties.
This reduces reliance on imported agricultural inputs, improves resilience, and strengthens food sovereignty by anchoring productivity in local ecosystems.
External Partnerships
AES leaders have consistently emphasized diversifying external partnerships, courting investments from China, BRICS, and African sovereign wealth funds, while simultaneously renegotiating terms with Western donors on a more equal footing.
Country-Specific Economic Performance
Mali
Mali’s economy has shown signs of gradual recovery:
- Real GDP growth: 3.7% in 2022 → 4.5% in 2023 → 5.0% projected in 2025.
- Key drivers: agriculture, services, and new lithium extraction.
Major reforms include a 2023 mining law that raised the state’s stake in mining projects from 20% to 35%, including a mandatory 10% free share for the government and an option for 2% additional acquisition within two years of production.
The law also:
- Increased local content requirements.
- Introduced a 7.5% royalty on gold sales above $1,500/oz.
- Required companies to contribute to a Local Mining Development Fund.
Despite a 23% decline in gold production in 2024 due to transition-related disruptions, lithium exports launched in 2024 are expected to become a new growth pillar.
Strong agricultural performance, cotton exports, and digital reforms in taxation have improved fiscal balances. Still, Mali faces electricity shortages, climate-related shocks, and a projected widening deficit (3.4% of GDP in 2025).
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso’s economy rebounded:
- GDP growth: 1.7% in 2022 → 3.6% in 2023 → 4.9% in 2024.
- Key drivers: agriculture and services, aided by favorable weather and government support.
Gold mining remains significant, though insecurity has disrupted operations. The government is reforming artisanal mining and modernizing energy infrastructure to expand electrification and diversify energy sources.
Economic indicators:
- Inflation: 0.7% in 2023 → 4.2% in 2024 due to food supply disruptions.
- Extreme poverty: Fell to 23% in 2024.
- Fiscal deficit: Improved to 5.6% of GDP in 2024.
Yet, dependence on gold and cotton exports, high borrowing costs, and security spending remain vulnerabilities.
Niger
Niger is currently the fastest-growing economy in the Alliance:
- GDP growth: 10.4% in 2024 → projected 7.4% in 2025.
- Drivers: oil exports, agriculture, uranium, and gold.
The government is investing in energy infrastructure to support oil production and industrialization, while also promoting renewable energy.
Challenges include:
- Heavy reliance on a narrow range of exports.
- Rising debt burden—downgraded by IMF/World Bank in 2024 from “moderate” to high debt distress risk.
- Persistent inflation from food price volatility.
Persistent Challenges
Despite reforms, AES states face enduring obstacles:
- Political fragility: Military juntas have delayed elections (Mali), banned political activities (Burkina Faso), and continue detaining former officials (Niger). This undermines investor confidence.
- Security crises: Ongoing insurgencies and ethnic conflicts disrupt agriculture, deter investment, and strain public finances.
- Geographic constraints: As landlocked states, AES members depend heavily on coastal neighbors for trade routes, raising costs and weakening competitiveness.
- Structural vulnerabilities: Overdependence on commodities, weak infrastructure, and exposure to climate shocks continue to limit resilience.
Opportunities and Outlook
Despite the difficulties, AES countries hold significant potential:
- A combined population of over 71 million, offering a large labor force and consumer market.
- Vast natural resources, including lithium, uranium, gold, oil, and arable land.
- The possibility of designing independent fiscal, trade, and investment policies tailored to national priorities.
AES states are also adopting a pragmatic approach to regional integration, maintaining selective cooperation with ECOWAS protocols while seeking alternative global partnerships. This multi-vector strategy could strengthen their leverage in negotiations and attract diversified investment flows.
Conclusion
The economic project of the Alliance of Sahel States is more than a bid for self-reliance—it represents an attempt to redefine regional integration on terms rooted in local agency rather than external conditionalities.
While new tariffs, institutional reforms, and policy shifts disrupt trade and raise questions about sovereignty versus cooperation in West Africa, the long-term ambition is clear: to transform the Sahel from a zone of chronic crisis into a hub of self-directed growth, regional solidarity, and resource-driven development.
For this vision to succeed, AES states must not only pursue structural reforms in agriculture, mining, and finance but also invest in climate resilience, human capital, infrastructure, and governance. Only then can economic independence translate into sustainable prosperity.
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