Analyst Warns Trump’s Push for Bagram Airbase Risks Dangerous Escalation with Taliban

A prominent foreign policy analyst has issued a stark warning that former President Donald Trump’s renewed push for the United States to retake Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan could trigger a range of perilous scenarios, from a high-stakes military confrontation to the base’s destruction, endangering lives and undermining regional stability.

The warning comes in response to Trump’s recent public statements, including a post on his Truth Social platform where he declared that “bad things will happen” if the Taliban refuses to relinquish control of the strategic airfield. Trump first floated the idea during a press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, signaling a persistent focus on the issue.

According to Michael Kugelman, South Asia Director at the Wilson Center, this repetition suggests the proposition reflects a “genuine interest” rather than mere political posturing. In an analysis for Foreign Policy, Kugelman outlined the extreme dangers of such a move. “The potential scenarios are all high-risk,” he wrote, ranging from “a hazardous U.S. military operation to seize the base to its outright destruction”—actions he characterized as “extremely dangerous.”

The consequences, Kugelman argues, would be severe. A forced retaking of Bagram could result in significant Afghan and American casualties, derail ongoing and delicate negotiations—such as prisoner-release talks—and incur major political costs for Trump himself.

A Taliban “Red Line” and Regional Repercussions

The proposal faces an immovable obstacle: the Taliban’s firm opposition. The group swiftly rejected Trump’s demand, stating unequivocally that Afghanistan will not host foreign troops. While the Taliban has sought international legitimacy through concessions, it regards a foreign military presence as a fundamental red line.

Analysts further caution that a U.S. attempt to reestablish a foothold at Bagram could provoke reactions beyond Afghanistan’s borders, particularly from China. Beijing might perceive the move as a provocative U.S. effort to project power in a region where China has growing economic and strategic interests.

While proponents argue that Bagram could serve as a valuable hub for countering the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), Kugelman contends that U.S. counterterrorism objectives may be more effectively and safely pursued through over-the-horizon capabilities or by focusing on other regional partnerships.

An “Irrational” Threat Amid Valuable, Limited Channels

Kugelman described the timing and tone of Trump’s threat as “appear[ing] irrational,” yet underscored the former president’s “enduring fixation” on the base, a symbol of the U.S.’s two-decade military presence in Afghanistan.

Despite the collapse of the Afghan government in 2021, the United States maintains limited but critical diplomatic engagement with the Taliban through channels in Qatar and Kabul. Analysts stress that these contacts remain essential for managing immediate security threats, including counterterrorism coordination, and for facilitating discussions on issues such as the future of Afghanistan’s vast, untapped mineral resources. A confrontational push for Bagram would almost certainly sever these fragile lines of communication, isolating Washington at a moment when pragmatic engagement is most needed.

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