A Year After Nasrallah’s Death, a Battered Hezbollah Regroups and Recalibrates

BEIRUT: One year ago, Hezbollah faced its most profound crisis. A devastating war with Israel had culminated in a massive airstrike on a Beirut suburb, killing the militant group’s charismatic and longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The group, a dominant force in Lebanese and regional politics for decades, appeared critically weakened, both militarily and politically. Many observers declared its era of influence over.

But today, a consensus is emerging among supporters, opponents, and analysts alike: Hezbollah is regrouping. Battered and forced into the shadows, the “Party of God” is methodically rebuilding its command structure, addressing fatal intelligence breaches, and navigating a complex new political landscape—all while its future role in Lebanon hangs in the balance.

“The loss of this leader was a very painful blow to Hezbollah,” senior political official Mohammed Fneish acknowledged to The Associated Press ahead of the anniversary of Nasrallah’s death. “However, Hezbollah is not a party in the usual sense that when it loses its leader, the party becomes weak. In a relatively short period of time, it was able to fill all the positions it lost when [leaders] were martyred, and it continued the confrontation.”

This resilience was tested immediately. Despite the decapitation of its top tier, Hezbollah continued to fight as Israeli troops pushed into southern Lebanon last October. The conflict, which began as a “support front” for Hamas after its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, had escalated dramatically. In September 2024, Israel expanded its operations, first by detonating thousands of Hezbollah-owned communication devices in a sophisticated cyberattack, then launching a wave of airstrikes that killed commanders and civilians. The deadliest blow came with the assassination of Nasrallah himself, along with an Iranian general, under 80 tons of bombs.

An Uncertain Assessment from Adversaries

Israel’s official assessment remains cautiously optimistic. An Israeli military official, speaking anonymously in line with regulations, stated that Hezbollah’s “influence has declined considerably” and that “the likelihood of a large-scale attack against Israel is considered low.” The official also cited financial strain, noting the group is “struggling to receive sufficient funding from Iran.”

However, the statement contained a critical admission: “The organization is attempting to rebuild its capabilities; efforts are limited but expected to expand.” The military declined to estimate what percentage of Hezbollah’s vast arsenal of missiles and drones remains functional.

Other Western officials warn against underestimation. U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, in an interview with the UAE-based IMI Media Group, countered the narrative of financial ruin. “The Lebanese think Hezbollah is not rebuilding. They’re rebuilding,” Barrack asserted, claiming the group is receiving as much as $60 million per month from unknown sources despite sanctions. “Hezbollah is our enemy, Iran is our enemy. We need to cut the heads off of those snakes and chop the flow of funds.”

Fneish did not disclose funding sources but said the group’s financial situation is “normal,” allowing its institutions—from its armed wing to its extensive social services network—to function as before.

Leadership and the Ghost of Intelligence Failures

The post-Nasrallah era has also forced a shift in leadership dynamics. After his successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed in airstrikes, the mantle fell to Naim Kassem, a longtime deputy viewed as more of an administrator than a charismatic visionary. The perception is that Kassem lacks Nasrallah’s commanding presence.

Yet, according to analysts like Bashir Saade, a lecturer at Scotland’s University of Stirling, the group’s identity is deeply rooted in a culture of martyrdom that can absorb such shocks. “Nasrallah’s assassination was an emotional shock that is destabilizing, but their identity finds continuity through the martyrdom culture,” Saade said.

Fneish echoed this, insisting the group faces no identity crisis. “Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was the representation of this identity; he was not himself the identity,” he said.

Internally, Hezbollah has gone underground, urgently addressing the intelligence failures that led to the precise targeting of its leaders. A Hezbollah official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the group now relies less on technology, having discovered that Israel had infiltrated its internal cable communications network. The official also described the pre-assassination detention of a man suspected of scouting Nasrallah’s eventual location for Israeli intelligence.

A Nation’s Catch-22

Hezbollah’s future is inextricably linked to Lebanon’s political and economic crisis. The Lebanese government, under international pressure, has pledged to disarm the group by year’s end—a demand from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia for funding reconstruction. Hezbollah has categorically rejected this.

This puts the fragile state in a catch-22, explained a Western diplomat who spoke anonymously. The cash-strapped and underequipped Lebanese army is ill-prepared to confront a battle-hardened militia whose members sometimes come from the same communities as the soldiers themselves. “I don’t see any coming back on this [decision], but I don’t see how it will go forward either,” the diplomat said.

Meanwhile, on the ground, the sentiment among Hezbollah’s base is mixed. The destruction of southern Lebanon and the collective trauma of war initially led some to question the cost of maintaining the arsenal. However, recent events, including what many see as continued Israeli aggression, have reinforced support for the “resistance.”

Jad Hamouch, a Lebanese journalist, observed this shift: “There’s a portion of this community that was psychologically worn down after this war… But after they saw how Israel is behaving in the region, now they’re saying, no, we want to keep the weapons.”

This resolve was palpable in the group’s strong showing in recent municipal elections and in the words of people like Amira Jaafar, who lost her son and her home in the border village of Kfar Kila. “Despite all of Hezbollah’s losses, including the death of its ‘great leader’ Nasrallah,” she said, “we are still strong and there are many, many young men ready to fight until their last breath.”

A year after its greatest loss, Hezbollah is not the same powerful force it once was. But it is proving to be a resilient one, navigating its survival in a changed Lebanon and a volatile Middle East.

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