Tehran is weighing a plan to redirect hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees toward Iraq and Turkey, a move analysts warn could weaponize migration to counter international pressure and destabilize neighboring states.
According to a report by The Guardian, the Iranian government is considering a significant escalation in its response to a confluence of crises: a series of Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities, the reactivation of stringent “snapback” sanctions by Western powers, and escalating regional security concerns. The controversial strategy involves releasing and directing large numbers of Afghan refugees toward its western borders with Iraq and Turkey.
This potential maneuver marks a stark intensification of Tehran’s posture and mirrors tactics previously threatened by other regional actors. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly warned European nations that he would allow millions of Syrian refugees to cross into the EU unless his demands were met. Iran’s reported plan suggests a similar calculus: leveraging a humanitarian crisis as a tool of geopolitical coercion.
A Decades-Long Sanctuary Turns to Deportation
Iran has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for over four decades, beginning with the Soviet invasion in 1979 and continuing through subsequent waves of conflict and Taliban rule. However, the policy of relative tolerance has sharply reversed. Amnesty International reports that deportations have surged dramatically, with one million Afghans expelled in 2025 alone. An additional 500,000 were forcibly returned following Iran’s brief but intense military confrontation with Israel earlier this year.
Official figures from Iranian authorities are often conflicting, but the United Nations estimates that at least two million undocumented Afghans remain within its borders. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has issued a stark warning, suggesting that up to four million Afghans could be at risk of deportation this year, a move that would overwhelm an already crippled Afghanistan.
A Multifaceted Strategy Under Pressure
The refugee redirection plan is reportedly just one element of a broader, more aggressive Iranian strategy. In response to the recent attacks and sanctions, Tehran is also:
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Strengthening its air defenses to protect critical infrastructure.
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Accelerating the expansion of its missile program as a deterrent.
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Suspending cooperation with UN nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), raising alarms about the opacity of its nuclear ambitions.
Severe Humanitarian and Security Risks
Security experts and human rights organizations have sounded the alarm on the catastrophic consequences of such a policy.
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Humanitarian Catastrophe: Forcibly displacing hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people would expose them to extreme poverty, exploitation by human traffickers, and dire living conditions. Afghanistan, under Taliban rule and enduring a severe economic crisis, is utterly unequipped to receive such a massive influx of returnees.
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Security Vacuum: The mass, chaotic movement of people creates a fertile environment for extremist groups. Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former UN security sanctions monitor, highlighted the specific threat posed by ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K). “The group sees newly deported, disenfranchised, and traumatized young men as a prime recruitment pool,” Schindler stated. “This would significantly boost their ability to regenerate and launch attacks, not only in Afghanistan but across the region.”
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Regional Destabilization: Pushing a wave of refugees into Iraq—a country struggling with its own political and security instability—and toward Turkey—a key NATO ally already hosting the world’s largest refugee population—could severely strain bilateral relations and trigger a wider regional crisis.
In essence, the reported plan represents a high-stakes gambit by Iran. By threatening to unleash a controlled migrant crisis, Tehran aims to pressure its adversaries and shift the regional power balance. However, analysts caution that such a strategy carries immense risks, potentially unleashing a chain reaction of human suffering and security threats that could engulf the entire region.
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