DUSHANBE, Tajikistan – In a strategic move to address escalating regional threats, Russian President Vladimir Putin will host a summit with Central Asian leaders in Tajikistan on Thursday, with the worsening security situation in Afghanistan poised to dominate the agenda and drive discussions on military and economic cooperation.
The high-level meeting, the second of its kind, will bring together the presidents of Russia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The talks in Dushanbe represent a concerted effort by the Kremlin to reinforce its role as the primary security guarantor in a region often described as its “near abroad,” particularly as instability spills over from Afghanistan.
A Gathering Under the Shadow of the Hindu Kush
The summit’s urgent tone was set in advance by stark warnings from Russian officials. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu recently stated that over 23,000 fighters from international terrorist groups, including Islamic State (ISIS-K) and Al-Qaeda affiliates, are now entrenched in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. He described the gathering threat as “a serious challenge to the collective security of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and a serious threat to regional and global security.”
This assessment frames the primary mission of the Dushanbe summit: to present a unified front against the potential for cross-border militancy, drug trafficking, and religious extremism. For the Central Asian nations, all of which share a long and porous border with Afghanistan, the Taliban’s resurgence is an immediate and existential concern.
Deepening Military Integration and Bilateral Ties
A key outcome expected from the summit is the further integration of regional defense structures under Moscow’s leadership. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that, alongside broader discussions on trade, investment, and logistics, “special attention will be paid to ensuring regional security.”
This will be operationalized through concrete military agreements. Russia’s ambassador to Tajikistan, Semyon Grigoryev, revealed that Moscow and Dushanbe are in advanced discussions to “enhance the capacity” of the Russian 201st Military Base in Tajikistan—Moscow’s largest overseas military facility—and to modernize the Tajik armed forces.
“Close coordination is maintained both on a bilateral basis and within the framework of regional structures, such as the CSTO and the SCO,” Grigoryev stated, referencing the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and the China-inclusive Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
A Geopolitical Chessboard: Russia’s Enduring Influence
The summit is more than a crisis response; it is a demonstration of Russia’s enduring geopolitical ambitions in Central Asia. Amid a renewed “Great Game,” where China’s economic influence grows through its Belt and Road Initiative and the West’s footprint has diminished since the Afghan withdrawal, Moscow is reasserting its primacy.
“Putin’s visit and this summit are a clear signal that, despite the war in Ukraine, Russia remains focused on its strategic depth in Central Asia,” said Anya Malpas, a senior analyst for Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. “By positioning itself as the indispensable security partner, Moscow aims to consolidate a sphere of influence and ensure these nations remain within its orbit, especially as they also engage with other powers like China.”
Leaders are expected to sign a series of agreements covering trade, transport, and defense, solidifying the outcomes of the talks. However, analysts note that the Central Asian leaders will be walking a delicate line—eager for Russian security assurances while cautiously preserving their own sovereignty and multi-vector foreign policies that also include partnerships with Beijing and the West.
The discussions in Dushanbe will thus reveal not only the region’s collective anxiety over Afghanistan but also the evolving dynamics of power and partnership in the heart of Eurasia.
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