Pakistan’s Calculated Gambit: Airstrikes and the Reshaping of the Taliban Equation

The Strike and Its Strategic Ambiguity

In a significant escalation, recent airstrikes hit at least four locations inside Afghanistan, including the capital, Kabul.

Crucially, Islamabad has maintained official silence, opting for a strategy of deliberate ambiguity. By implicitly pointing to the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) as the responsible party, Pakistan is executing a multi-layered diplomatic and strategic maneuver. This approach is not a sign of weakness but a calculated move designed to send several powerful messages simultaneously.

Decoding Islamabad’s Strategic Messaging

1. Reasserting Regional Primacy: The strikes are a forceful declaration that Afghanistan remains the central piece in Pakistan’s regional security strategy. They demonstrate that Islamabad considers itself the indispensable arbiter of Afghanistan’s fate, capable of projecting power across the border at will. The message to Kabul, Washington, and other regional players is clear: no sustainable political or security order in Afghanistan can be established without Pakistan’s direct involvement and consent.

2. Re-courting Washington, Sidestepping Allies: By positioning itself as a counter-terrorism partner facilitating—or at least tolerating—U.S. military action, Pakistan is strategically realigning itself. This move effectively distances Islamabad from the Moscow-Beijing-Tehran axis, a alignment it had cultivated following the U.S. withdrawal. This recalibration could potentially undermine initiatives like the Moscow Format or China’s Belt and Road projects in Afghanistan, while also complicating Iran’s delicate relations with the Taliban.

3. A Direct Warning to the Taliban: The airstrikes serve as an unequivocal warning to the Taliban leadership in Kandahar. They signal that the “policy of physical elimination” remains a active tool in Pakistan’s arsenal, to be deployed if the Taliban deviate from Islamabad’s red lines—primarily, providing sanctuary to the TTP. Pakistan does not view this action as an invasion of a sovereign neighbor, but rather as a form of “internal control” over a group whose rise to power it heavily facilitated.

The Grand Design: Controlling the Pashtun Landscape

Beyond immediate tactical goals, Pakistan’s strategy is driven by a deeper, long-term objective: to control the religious and political narrative within the Pashtun community that straddles the Durand Line.

• Exporting Religious Authority: Islamabad understands that to quell rising anti-government sentiment and warlike tendencies among its own Pashtun population, it must export religious authority beyond its borders. By moving the center of Pashtun religious authority from Pakistan to Kandahar, it aims to ensure that the influential religious movement there issues fatwas and directives aligned with Pakistani interests, particularly forbidding jihad within Pakistan.

• Consolidating a Pro-Pakistan Axis: Within the Taliban’s ranks, Pakistan has cultivated a circle of loyal religious and intellectual figures. The rising prominence of Mawlawi Hakim Haqqani and Mawlawi Islam Jar is part of this design. This ensures that the “religious axis” remains intact, providing a ready-made succession plan should the need arise to remove a non-compliant leader like Mullah Haibatullah. The earlier eliminations of figures like Mawlawi Samiul Haq and his son can be analyzed in this context—preventing the emergence of an independent Pashtun religious center inside Pakistan.

The Taliban’s Retaliatory Gambit and the Durand Line Flashpoint

The situation escalated dramatically with the Taliban’s claimed military operation along the contentious Durand Line. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, stated that their forces captured over forty Pakistani border posts and killed 58 Pakistani soldiers in a “retaliatory” action.

This response, while bold in its claims, must be viewed through a strategic lens:

• A Symbolic, Yet Significant, Response: The Taliban, facing internal pressure to respond to the sovereignty-violating airstrikes, chose a familiar battlefield: the disputed border. The capture of posts is a powerful symbolic act of defiance, aimed at a domestic audience and hardline elements within the Taliban who demand a strong stance against Pakistan.

• The Durand Line’s Persistent Shadow: The operation highlights the Durand Line’s status as a permanent flashpoint. By challenging the border’s legitimacy through military action, the Taliban taps into a deep-seated Afghan nationalist sentiment, a tool they can wield against Pakistani pressure.

• A Potential Pakistani Trap: Paradoxically, this Taliban retaliation may play into Pakistan’s hands. The border clash provides Islamabad with a potential casus belli. If Pakistan chooses to escalate, it could frame the Taliban’s action as proof of the regime’s aggression and its inability to control its territory, thereby justifying larger cross-border operations or formally inviting international (potentially CENTCOM) assistance to “combat terrorism.”

Regional Ripples and Future Implications

This cycle of violence has immediate implications for other regional actors:

• India: The airstrikes occurred while Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was in Delhi, a visit Pakistan viewed with deep suspicion. The strikes are a necessary warning to both Kandahar and Kabul about the limits of their engagement with India, Pakistan’s primary regional rival.

• International Legitimacy: The Taliban administration’s involvement in a direct cross-border military conflict severely damages its already slim prospects for international recognition and legitimacy. It reinforces the global perception of the group as an unstable and aggressive actor.

Conclusion: A Dangerous New Chapter

Pakistan’s airstrikes and the Taliban’s forceful retaliation mark a dangerous new chapter in their fraught relationship. Islamabad has moved beyond diplomatic pressure to a policy of direct, kinetic action to enforce its will on the Taliban government it helped create. The Taliban, in turn, have demonstrated they are not a simple proxy and will push back, using the leverage of the disputed border and their own capacity for military action.

The region is now caught in a volatile feedback loop of provocation and response. The carefully constructed facade of Taliban-Pakistan brotherhood has shattered, revealing a relationship defined by mutual distrust, strategic competition, and the ever-present, explosive issue of the Durand Line. The coming days will reveal whether this escalation is a one-off demonstration of force or the opening salvo in a prolonged, low-intensity conflict that further destabilizes an already volatile region.

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