Doha in the Spotlight: The Regional Balance Between the Taliban and Islamabad Under U.S. Observation

Amid meticulously coordinated diplomatic efforts between Qatar and Turkey, sensitive negotiations are unfolding in Doha between Afghanistan’s de facto government and Islamabad. These talks represent one of the most complex regional security challenges in decades and have already led to an immediate ceasefire agreement. Far from being a mere attempt to calm tensions along the Afghan-Pakistani border, these negotiations serve as a strategic platform for redefining regional influence and recalibrating relations among major powers—including Washington, New Delhi, Beijing, Moscow, and the Gulf states.
The Doha talks carry exceptional significance at a moment when security considerations intersect with shifting regional balances and the indirect role of the United States, particularly as the Taliban emerges as a more mature and independent political actor than ever before.
In this evolving context, Pakistan faces a dual dilemma. Domestically, repeated airstrikes inside Afghan territory that caused civilian casualties have eroded public confidence and highlighted internal divisions within the military and intelligence apparatus. Externally, the Taliban’s growing independence has diminished Islamabad’s traditional leverage, signaling that decades of strategic investment may have yielded diminishing returns. These miscalculations have exposed the limits of Pakistan’s influence over Kabul, undermining both its regional standing and its long-term strategic objectives.
As reported by The Washington Post, Pakistan confronts a new geopolitical reality: a stronger, more autonomous government in Kabul that challenges Islamabad’s historical influence. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s public remarks, attributing responsibility for recent attacks to Pakistan, further underscored the limitations of Islamabad’s position and highlighted Washington’s indirect role in shaping regional security and political dynamics.
Although Pakistan has sought to leverage mediation with the Taliban to secure economic and strategic advantages—including access to Afghanistan’s mineral wealth—these efforts have largely failed to produce lasting gains. The Taliban’s refusal to host a high-level Pakistani delegation immediately following the airstrikes was a diplomatic signal of declining Pakistani influence, regardless of the objectives Islamabad sought to achieve.
These developments have also exacerbated internal divisions within Pakistan, triggering tensions between civilian political leaders and the military establishment, weakening the country’s regional posture, and generating uncertainty regarding its strategic trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Taliban have demonstrated greater political sophistication, using dialogue as a tool to secure international recognition and political benefits without making substantive concessions. Their expanding relations with India have created a new regional power dynamic, alarming Islamabad, which now perceives its historical influence over the Taliban as increasingly constrained. This realignment reflects both Pakistan’s strategic missteps and the Taliban’s pursuit of independent investments beyond Islamabad’s control.
The repercussions extend beyond South Asia to the Gulf states—including the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—which maintain strategic investments and seek balanced relations with all actors. Any disruption that threatens these interests complicates regional risk management, while Washington continues to monitor and, where advantageous, influence outcomes indirectly.
Looking ahead, three potential scenarios emerge:
Temporary Calm and Joint Mediation: A provisional ceasefire, brokered under Qatari-Turkish sponsorship, followed by successive negotiation rounds in Doha and Islamabad. This would secure the border, ease domestic pressures in Pakistan, and maintain the Taliban’s nominal gains while allowing regional and international stakeholders to observe developments.

Negotiation Failure and Escalation: Breakdown of talks could trigger renewed airstrikes and border clashes, deepening Pakistan’s internal crisis and jeopardizing regional projects, particularly those of China and Gulf states. This scenario would likely prompt urgent diplomatic interventions to contain broader fallout.
Long-Term Strategic Transformation: A sustainable agreement involving international monitoring, separation of the Taliban from armed groups, and resolution of outstanding issues. This would allow Pakistan to regain partial control in areas beyond its influence, reinforce the Taliban’s independence, foster Kabul-New Delhi trust, and contribute to regional stability benefiting China, Russia, and Gulf partners.
The Doha negotiations, facilitated by Qatar and Turkey, demonstrate the Taliban’s strengthened regional position and Pakistan’s diminishing leverage. Sustained follow-up is essential to consolidate the ceasefire. Long-term stability, however, hinges on Islamabad’s adaptation to its declining influence and the Taliban’s commitment to disentanglement from armed groups, with Doha remaining central to managing South Asia’s delicate balance of power.

The original article was published on the White House Platform (Arabic), based in Washington, D.C.

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