Iran Accelerates Afghan Repatriation, Granting Residency to Only Half of its Six Million Afghan Migrants

Tehran, [dawatmedia, 29.11.2025] – Iran has confirmed the expulsion of nearly 1.5 million Afghan nationals this year, while announcing a stark new policy that will grant legal residency to only half of the estimated six-million-strong Afghan population living within its borders. The moves signal a dramatic hardening of Iran’s stance on a decades-old migration crisis, raising urgent humanitarian and security concerns for the region.

Official Announcement and New Policy

The figures were disclosed by Nader Yarahmadi, head of the Centre for Foreign Nationals and Migrants of Iran’s Interior Ministry, during the fourth ministers’ meeting of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) on Tuesday.

Yarahmadi stated that 1.456 million Afghan migrants have been deported since the beginning of the year. He further revealed that of the six million Afghans currently in Iran, a government plan will grant residence permits to only 50 percent—approximately three million people. This suggests that the other half, some three million individuals, now live under the imminent threat of deportation or exist in a legal limbo without rights or protections.

According to Yarahmadi’s breakdown, around 4.5 million Afghan nationals currently reside in Iran, indicating a significant portion of the six-million figure may be unregistered. He also highlighted a critical demographic challenge, noting that 26 percent of Afghan-led households in Iran are headed by women. In a partial concession, he clarified that these female-led households are not subject to forced expulsion and that their departure would be strictly voluntary.

Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

The scale and speed of the returns have triggered alarms among international humanitarian organizations.

“The mass deportations are happening at an alarming rate, overwhelming the already fragile support systems inside Afghanistan,” a spokesperson for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) stated. The IFRC has warned that up to one million more Afghans could be returned by the end of the year, a influx that would place an unbearable strain on a nation grappling with widespread poverty, a collapsed healthcare system, and a Taliban administration unable to provide basic services.

The situation creates a dire dilemma for the returnees. Many have lived in Iran for years or even decades, and their children have never known Afghanistan. Forced to return to a homeland they may not remember, they often arrive with few resources, no home, and no immediate prospects for employment or integration.

Context and Driving Factors

The Afghan presence in Iran is the result of successive waves of migration, driven by decades of conflict, drought, and economic collapse in Afghanistan, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979. Iran has historically hosted one of the world’s largest refugee populations, but public patience has worn thin amid a severe economic crisis, exacerbated by international sanctions.

The new policy appears to be a response to several pressures:

• Economic Strain: With Iran’s economy struggling, Afghan migrants are often scapegoated for unemployment and depressed wages.

• Security Concerns: Iranian authorities have long expressed worries about the potential for militancy and instability spilling over the border.

• Political Posturing: Taking a hardline stance on migration can be a tool for the government to rally domestic support.

Regional Implications

The shifting migration dynamics between Iran and Afghanistan now pose a critical challenge for regional stability. A massive, sudden influx of deportees risks further destabilizing Afghanistan, potentially fueling recruitment for armed groups and creating a new cycle of displacement. Neighboring Pakistan, which has also begun large-scale expulsions of Afghans, and Central Asian nations are watching closely, as the crisis threatens to have a domino effect across the region.

With Iran tightening residency rules and accelerating expulsions, millions of Afghan migrants face profoundly uncertain futures. The international community is now tasked with responding to a rapidly escalating humanitarian emergency, even as the political will for a coordinated solution remains in short supply.

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