A new UN report delivers a stark message: despite global pledges, the window to avert the worst of the climate crisis is closing rapidly, with a dangerous temperature overshoot now ‘very likely.’
26 October 2030 — The world is “very likely” to breach the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7°F) global warming limit within the next decade, according to a definitive new assessment from the United Nations. The report underscores a devastating failure by nations to align their actions with their promises, putting the planet on a trajectory for severe and irreversible damage.
The UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) annual Emissions Gap Report, released Tuesday, paints a grim picture of the gap between political rhetoric and climatic reality. It finds that even if all countries fulfill their current climate action plans under the Paris Agreement, the planet is still headed for a catastrophic 2.3 to 2.5°C (4.1 to 4.5°F) of warming by the century’s end. Under existing policies, the situation is worse, with a projected 2.8°C (5°F) increase.
“Nations have had multiple opportunities to deliver on the promises made in Paris, and each time they have landed off target,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “The incremental progress we’ve seen is nowhere near fast enough. We now require unprecedented, system-wide emissions cuts within an increasingly tight window, all while navigating a challenging geopolitical landscape.”
A World of Widening Gaps and Growing Emissions
The findings arrive just days before world leaders convene for the pivotal COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where the collective failure to curb the crisis will dominate discussions. The report highlights several alarming trends:
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Rising Global Emissions: In 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions grew by 2.3%, driven primarily by increases in India, followed by China, Russia, and Indonesia.
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G20 Responsibility: Wealthy and powerful G20 economies, which are historically the largest emitters, continue to bear overwhelming responsibility, accounting for three-quarters of all global emissions. Of the world’s six largest polluters, only the European Union managed to cut its emissions last year.
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The US Reversal: The United States, under President Donald Trump, has formally moved away from its climate commitments. Its planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will become official early next year. UNEP estimates the Trump administration’s policies—which include rolling back environmental regulations and hindering green energy projects—will add back a tenth of a degree of warming, a significant amount in the global climate system.
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A Leadership Vacuum: The report notes that by a recent deadline, only 60 of the 195 parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted or announced new climate targets for 2035. This lack of urgency from a majority of the world’s nations has created a formidable gap in ambition.
Why Every Fraction of a Degree Matters
The 1.5°C target is not an arbitrary number; it is a scientifically established guardrail to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. The Earth, already 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than pre-industrial times, is witnessing the consequences.
“Every tenth of a degree has ramifications on communities and on ecosystems around the world,” said Dr. Adelle Thomas, vice-chair of a separate UN scientific panel that calculates climate impacts. “It is particularly important for those vulnerable communities and ecosystems that are already being pushed beyond their limits.”
The ramifications are stark:
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At current warming, most tropical coral reefs face near-total devastation.
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Between 1.5°C and 2°C, the risks of triggering irreversible tipping points, such as the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (locking in meters of sea-level rise) or the die-back of the Amazon rainforest, increase dramatically.
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“It matters in heatwaves. It matters in ocean heatwaves and the destruction of coral reefs. It matters long term when we think about sea level rise,” Dr. Thomas told The Associated Press.
A Call to Step Up, Not Surrender
The UN report is not merely a diagnosis of failure but a urgent call to action. It emphasizes that while a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit is now inevitable, the ultimate goal of pulling temperatures back down by the end of the century remains within reach—but only through immediate and radical action.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres echoed this sentiment. “Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable… And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” he said. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. [Achieving] 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. This goal is still within reach, but only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
The report concludes that the world must now cut an additional two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually to compensate for projected backsliding by major emitters and to get on a pathway that minimizes the duration and severity of the coming temperature overshoot. The message to leaders at COP30 is clear: the time for promises is over; the era of transformative action must begin now.
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