India Weighs Strategic Re-engagement in Kabul, Balancing Diplomacy and Regional Rivalry

New Delhi – In a significant move signaling a potential shift in its Afghanistan policy, India is actively reviewing plans to bolster its diplomatic mission in Kabul. The assessment comes amid a complex backdrop of regional instability, a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and a strategic opportunity created by Islamabad’s fraying ties with the Taliban regime.

A Deliberate and Cautious Approach

Mr. Randhir Jaiswal, the official spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), confirmed the ongoing deliberations during a weekly press briefing on Friday. “We are reviewing our staffing and the strength of our embassy there [in Kabul], and how we can strengthen that presence,” Jaiswal stated. He emphasized that the details of the plan would be made public only after a final decision is reached within the government.

This review follows India’s formal upgrade of its technical mission in Kabul to a full-fledged embassy last month, a move the MEA described as a “sign of New Delhi’s firm commitment to enhancing bilateral engagement.” This marks the latest step in India’s cautious return to a diplomatic arena it largely exited after the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, when it evacuated its embassy and all personnel.

Engagement Without Recognition

A central, and deliberately unresolved, question remains that of formal recognition. Jaiswal declined to comment directly on whether India plans to recognize the Taliban-led government, which it, along with the vast majority of the international community, has thus far withheld recognition from due to concerns over human rights, particularly those of women and girls, and the regime’s links to terrorist groups.

However, the spokesperson confirmed that engagement has been ongoing. He noted that several rounds of talks have been held since the landmark visit of Taliban’s Acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to New Delhi. The discussions have reportedly focused on practical issues like the delivery of Indian humanitarian aid, ongoing infrastructure projects, and facilitating trade connectivity.

When pressed by Business India on whether Afghanistan would be permitted to appoint an ambassador-level diplomat to New Delhi or hoist its national flag at a mission—key symbols of sovereign recognition—Jaiswal refrained from providing a direct answer, underscoring the sensitive and incremental nature of the diplomacy.

The Pakistan Factor and a Shifting Regional Calculus

India’s re-engagement is unfolding parallel to a sharp and public deterioration in relations between the Taliban and Pakistan. The two neighbors have engaged in repeated cross-border skirmishes, with Islamabad accusing Kabul of harboring militants, including the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), who launch attacks against Pakistani security forces.

Significantly, during Muttaqi’s visit to India, Pakistan’s Interior Minister directly accused Afghanistan of acting “under the influence of India,” a charge New Delhi has vehemently denied. This accusation, however, highlights the deep-seated regional rivalry, where Afghanistan has long been a proxy theatre for India-Pakistan competition.

“From India’s perspective, Pakistan’s diminishing influence over the Taliban presents a strategic opening,” explained Dr. Priya Sharma, a South Asia analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies. “New Delhi is not rushing to recognize the regime, but it is methodically building channels of communication to protect its substantial historical investments and ensure that strategic space vacated by Pakistan isn’t filled by other adversaries, namely China.”

A Legacy of Investment and Future Stakes

India has been one of the largest regional donors to Afghanistan, investing over $3 billion in projects spanning critical infrastructure like the Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament building, as well as education, healthcare, and capacity building. These projects earned India significant goodwill among the Afghan people.

The primary immediate concern for New Delhi remains security, specifically the threat posed by anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) which it fears could find sanctuary in Afghanistan. Re-establishing a robust diplomatic and intelligence presence on the ground is seen as crucial to monitoring these threats.

The Road Ahead

Observers see India’s calibrated moves as part of a broader, pragmatic foreign policy aimed at maintaining stability and a strategic balance in South Asia. The ultimate decision to significantly strengthen the embassy will hinge on a careful calculation of the security situation for its personnel and tangible assurances from the Taliban on addressing India’s core security concerns.

For now, New Delhi is keeping all its options open, using diplomatic engagement as a tool to safeguard its interests while navigating the complex and unresolved political realities of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The world is watching to see if this cautious engagement evolves into a more formal political relationship, potentially redrawing the geopolitical lines in South Asia.