MOSCOW/ISTANBUL – The Kremlin has unequivocally stated that Russia will not participate in planned high-level talks on Ukraine in Turkey this week, dashing hopes for a near-term revival of diplomatic efforts to end the nearly two-year-long war.
The announcement on Tuesday came just a day before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was scheduled to arrive in Turkey for discussions aimed at restarting negotiations with Moscow. The talks were also expected to include US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, signaling a potential for significant behind-the-scenes diplomacy.
A Firm Rejection and a Glimmer of Openness
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was direct in his response to reporters’ inquiries. “No, there will be no Russian representatives in Turkey tomorrow,” Peskov stated. “For now, these contacts are taking place without Russian participation.”
However, he left a narrow diplomatic door ajar, adding that President Vladimir Putin “was open to conversations with the US and Turkey on the results of the talks.” This suggests that while Moscow is unwilling to engage directly in this forum, it is monitoring the discussions and may be open to receiving feedback through intermediaries.
A source close to Kirill Dmitriev, a Putin special envoy who has been a key figure in back-channel communications, confirmed to Reuters that he would not be attending the Istanbul meetings. The source noted that Dmitriev had held “very productive discussions” with Witkoff in the United States in late October, indicating that some level of dialogue has been occurring privately.
A Diplomatic Stalemate Hardens
The cancelled talks underscore the profound and ongoing stalemate in diplomacy. Turkey, a NATO member that has carefully maintained cordial relations with both Kyiv and Moscow, positioned itself as a primary neutral ground for negotiations in 2022. It notably brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a critical agreement that allowed for the safe passage of Ukrainian agricultural exports, though Russia ultimately withdrew from that deal in July 2023.
The diplomatic impasse has been exacerbated by recent actions from the United States. Last month, the administration of President Donald Trump imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Officials framed the move as retaliation for what they called Moscow’s deliberate stalling of peace talks and its continued military aggression.
Analysts Point to Military and Political Calculus
Analysts suggest Russia’s refusal to attend the talks is a strategic choice, reflecting its current confidence on the battlefield and a wait-and-see approach towards Western political dynamics.
“From the Kremlin’s perspective, why negotiate now?” said Maria Voronova, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “They believe they hold a position of military strength, with their new offensive in the east gaining incremental ground. Furthermore, they are likely calculating that the upcoming US election could produce a more favorable administration, making it advantageous to delay serious talks until 2025.”
The absence of Russian representatives effectively reduces this week’s meeting in Istanbul to a coordination session between Ukraine and its primary military and financial backer, the United States. The discussions are now expected to focus on aligning Ukrainian and American positions, addressing military aid needs, and strategizing on how to maintain international support for Kyiv in the face of a protracted conflict.
With no diplomatic breakthrough in sight and the war entering its second winter, the path to peace remains as elusive as ever.
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