Bangladesh at a Constitutional Crossroads

Bangladesh at a Constitutional Crossroads: Institutional Legacies and the Imperative for Reform Following the Hasina Conviction

Abstract: The recent in absentia conviction of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) represents a critical juncture in Bangladesh’s political history. This analysis examines the verdict not merely as a legal outcome but as a symptom of profound institutional decay. We argue that the interim government’s response will determine whether Bangladesh perpetuates a cyclical pattern of majoritarian authoritarianism and retributive justice or initiates a foundational shift toward robust, impartial democratic institutions.

1. Introduction: A Legacy of Institutional Weaponization

The political trajectory of Bangladesh from 2009 to 2024 was characterized by the systematic consolidation of state power under the Awami League (AL), led by Sheikh Hasina. While this period witnessed significant macroeconomic growth and enhanced security stability, it was concurrently marked by the erosion of democratic norms. Key state institutions—the judiciary, security apparatus, and electoral bodies—were increasingly instrumentalized to suppress political opposition and dissent. The conviction of Hasina for her role in the lethal crackdown on the 2023 student-led protests presents a moment of reckoning. The central question is whether the current administration will replicate the very institutional abuses it now condemns.

2. The Hasina Era: A Dual Legacy of Development and Democratic Backsliding

2.1. Socio-Economic Progress
Empirical data underscore significant economic advancement under Hasina’s tenure. Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew from $102 billion in 2009 to approximately $430 billion in 2024, with per capita income surpassing that of neighboring India. The nation solidified its position as the world’s second-largest apparel exporter, contributing to substantial poverty reduction.

2.2. Systematic Democratic Erosion
Conversely, this economic growth occurred alongside a methodical constriction of the democratic space. Key indicators of this backsliding include:

• Electoral Integrity: The credibility of the electoral process was severely compromised. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the 2014 elections over the abolition of the neutral caretaker government system. The 2018 and 2024 elections were characterized by widespread allegations of voter suppression, arbitrary arrests of opposition candidates, and non-competitive outcomes, leading analysts to classify the regime as a case of “developmental authoritarianism.”

• Judicial Instrumentalization: The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), established in 2010 to adjudicate war crimes from the 1971 liberation war, was subsequently criticized by international human rights organizations (e.g., Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International) for being leveraged to prosecute and decimate the leadership of the primary Islamist opposition, Jamaat-e-Islami. The subsequent application of the same legal mechanism to convict its creator, Hasina, underscores its politicized nature.

• Suppression of Civil Society and Media: The government engaged in systematic repression of dissent. Cases include the incarceration of Dr. Muhammad Yunus on contested labor charges following his political ambitions, the jailing of activists like Shahidul Alam for public criticism, and the legal persecution of the rights organization Odhikar for documenting state-sanctioned human rights abuses.

3. The Security Apparatus and Human Rights Violations

A defining feature of the Hasina administration was the deployment of state security forces for extrajudicial actions. Data compiled by human rights groups indicate that between 2009 and 2022, security forces were responsible for an estimated 2,597 extrajudicial killings. The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), a police counterterrorism unit, was implicated in hundreds of enforced disappearances and summary executions, leading to targeted sanctions by the United States in 2021. This institutionalization of impunity created a security paradigm where state power was exercised with minimal accountability.

4. The 2023 Protests and Regime Change: A Case Study in Repression

The July-August 2023 student-led protests against the government quota system served as a catalyst for political upheaval. The state’s response, as documented by media and human rights monitors, involved the deployment of aerial drones, helicopters, and lethal weaponry against unarmed civilians. The death toll, estimated at over 1,400, and the mass arrests that followed, demonstrated a disproportionate use of force. This event crystallized public discontent, leading to a mass movement that ultimately resulted in Hasina’s ouster and the establishment of an interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

5. The Current Conundrum: Retribution vs. Institutional Reformation

The conviction of Sheikh Hasina, while symbolically significant for transitional justice, poses a strategic dilemma for the interim government. Its subsequent actions reveal a concerning continuity with past practices:

• Reciprocal Exclusion: The banning of the AL’s student wing, the Chhatra League, as a “terrorist organization,” and the subsequent proscription of the Awami League itself from political activity, mirror the previous government’s tactics of disqualifying and criminalizing political opponents.

• Persistent Human Rights Abuses: Reports indicate that extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances have continued under the new administration, suggesting that the structures of impunity within the security forces remain largely unreformed.

This approach risks creating a vicious cycle where each successive government uses its temporary control over state institutions to punish its predecessors, thereby preventing the consolidation of a stable, rules-based political order.

6. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

The conviction of Sheikh Hasina closes one chapter of Bangladeshi politics but opens another fraught with risk. For Bangladesh to achieve sustainable democratic governance, it must transcend the politics of vendetta. The interim government’s test is not whether it can punish the previous regime, but whether it can build institutions resilient enough to prevent any future regime from replicating its abuses.

Recommendations for a Sustainable Transition:

1. Institutional Depoliticization: Undertake comprehensive judicial and security sector reforms to ensure the neutrality and professionalism of state institutions. This includes revising appointment procedures and strengthening independent oversight bodies.

2. Restoration of Competitive Electoral Politics: Reinstate the rights of all major political parties, including the AL and BNP, to participate in the 2026 elections under a transparent and internationally monitored electoral framework.

3. Truth and Reconciliation: Consider establishing a truth and reconciliation commission to address historical grievances in a manner that prioritizes national healing over selective retribution.

4. Constitutional Safeguards: Enact constitutional amendments that explicitly protect the independence of key institutions and prevent their weaponization by the executive branch.

Bangladesh’s future stability hinges on its ability to break this cyclical pattern. The path forward requires not a change of actors within a broken system, but a fundamental re-foundation of the system itself upon the principles of inclusivity, accountability, and institutional integrity.