Israel Assassinates Top Hezbollah Commander in Beirut Strike, Raising Fears of Regional War

Hezbollah has confirmed the death of a senior military commander, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, in an Israeli airstrike on its stronghold in southern Beirut, marking the most significant escalation in Lebanon since a fragile ceasefire took hold a year ago.

The strike, which targeted an apartment block in the Haret Hreik district of Dahiyeh on Sunday, killed at least five people and wounded 28, according to Lebanese authorities. Hezbollah eulogized Tabatabai as a “great commander” and vowed that the Israeli attack “opens the door to an escalation of assaults.”

A High-Value Target and a Deliberate Strike

The Israeli military publicly claimed responsibility, stating it “eliminated” Tabatabai, whom it identified as the chief of staff of Hezbollah’s armed wing, the Radwan Force. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed he was the explicit target. Israeli media reported that this was the military’s third attempt to assassinate Tabatabai since the previous year’s conflict, underscoring his strategic importance.

Tabatabai is the most senior Hezbollah figure to be killed since a U.S.-brokered truce in November 2024 temporarily halted over a year of intense hostilities. His background—born in 1968 to an Iranian father and Lebanese mother—and his membership in Hezbollah from the age of 12, highlight his deep roots within the Iran-backed group.

Hezbollah’s Strategic Dilemma: Retaliation or Restraint?

The assassination places Hezbollah in a critically difficult position. Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati declared the strike a crossing of a “red line,” and the group’s leadership is deliberating its response.

“Hezbollah is in a difficult position. It has lost its deterrence capabilities, and without a response, it could invite more Israeli attacks. But if it does respond, it could trigger a bigger Israeli bombardment that could hurt its support base,” said Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Beirut.

This dilemma is compounded by the shadow of Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated by Israel in a similar strike just over a year ago. The group is now led by a less-known collective leadership, making its next move unpredictable.

Analysts are divided on the likely outcome. “In my humble opinion, I don’t think Hezbollah is ready to give Netanyahu what he wants, meaning an excuse to launch an all-out war against Lebanon once again,” security affairs analyst Ali Rizk told Al Jazeera. He suggested that a major war could serve Netanyahu’s domestic political interests but would be devastating for Lebanon.

Regional Tensions and International Appeals

The attack occurs amid a backdrop of heightened regional tensions and only days before a scheduled visit by Pope Leo XIV, a trip intended to promote peace. It also follows a recent Israeli airstrike on the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp that killed 13 people.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the attack, calling on the international community to “intervene firmly and seriously to stop the attacks on Lebanon and its people.”

The strike also intensifies the long-standing pressure campaign on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. While the Lebanese government approved a plan in September to disarm the group across the country by year’s end, Hezbollah has refused to comply as long as Israeli military operations continue and it occupies disputed territories in southern Lebanon. Israel, meanwhile, accuses Hezbollah of rebuilding its military infrastructure in the south, a claim the Lebanese government denies.

Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar framed the conflict in existential terms, stating, “Every attack on Lebanon is a crossing of a red line, and this aggression is inherent in the entity that targets Lebanon’s dignity, sovereignty, and the security of its citizens.”

As the region holds its breath, the assassination of Haytham Ali Tabatabai has sharply increased the risk of a rapid and destructive escalation, testing the limits of the ceasefire and the strategic calculations of all parties involved.

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