The United Nations issued a stark warning this week: by 2026, an estimated 4.2 million people in Afghanistan will be in desperate need of shelter. This growing crisis is fueled by a relentless cycle of natural disasters and the mounting pressure of families returning from neighboring countries.
In a report released Sunday, the UN’s humanitarian coordination office (OCHA) outlined the staggering scale of the need. While aid groups are focusing immediate efforts on supporting 881,000 of the most vulnerable people—a mission requiring $160.3 million—the long-term outlook is dire. The funding is critical for emergency shelter, basic household items, winter supplies, and repairing homes destroyed by disasters.
Assistance is planned for all 34 provinces, with the highest priority given to regions gripped by drought, areas recently hit by floods or earthquakes, and communities struggling to absorb returnees from Pakistan and Iran.
The report underscores a system stretched to its limits. It notes that from last year’s floods alone, 15,000 people remain displaced, with 90% still living in tents or crumbling homes simply because funds to help them have run out. For over a quarter of all returnees, a safe place to live is their most urgent need.
Although there has been some progress in recent years in reducing informal settlements, the problem remains vast. Around 390,000 families—hundreds of thousands of people—continue to live in nearly 900 makeshift sites across the nation.
Afghanistan’s vulnerability is compounded by its geography. Earthquakes, floods, and landslides are a recurring reality, each new disaster wiping away fragile gains and pushing more families into homelessness, while draining the resources meant to help them.
In the face of this, OCHA emphasized that protecting the most vulnerable—particularly women, children, and people with disabilities—must remain central to the response. The agency also confirmed it continues to negotiate with the Taliban authorities to ensure aid workers can reach those in need.
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