Categories: Opinion

“Our gains in Russia from the war are numbered in days.”

The joint Israeli-American military campaign against Iran has triggered a severe crisis in the Persian Gulf region. The conflict has already inflicted serious economic damage as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across the region, and disruptions to major financial and logistics hubs.

Achieving a swift, decisive victory along the lines of a “Blitzkrieg” now appears increasingly unlikely. A prolonged conflict is the most plausible scenario. Despite suffering heavy military and economic losses, Iran continues its counteroffensive operations.

Is Russia benefiting from the current crisis? There are strong arguments in favor of an affirmative answer. However, these gains could, in the long term, transform into challenges similar to those faced by other actors in the region.

Nevertheless, several reasons suggest that the Gulf crisis has brought Russia tangible benefits, at least in the short term.

1. The Surge in Oil Prices
The most notable gain is the sharp increase in oil prices. Russia’s budget revenues and overall market performance are closely tied to global energy prices. Before the crisis, low oil prices posed a problem for Moscow. While not catastrophic on its own, the situation was aggravated by sanctions, which had partially restricted Russian supply routes. Moscow was forced to offer discounts and develop more sophisticated—and often more costly—methods to deliver oil, LNG, and other products to international markets. The Gulf war has somewhat eased this pressure on Russia, driven by market deficits and heightened uncertainty.

2. Temporary Sanctions Relief
The ripple effects on energy markets have prompted the United States to grant temporary exemptions from oil-related sanctions on Russia. This has reduced the risk of secondary sanctions for third-country buyers, including major importers like India and China.

3. Ukrainian Attacks Backfire
Ukraine has attempted to disrupt Russian oil and gas supplies by targeting tankers and ports. However, these attacks are unlikely to produce a game-changing effect. In the end, they only fuel overall uncertainty and contribute to pushing energy prices higher.

4. Shifting U.S. Focus
Another positive outcome for Russia is Washington’s reorientation toward the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and away from European affairs. The Biden administration had devoted significant attention to the Ukraine crisis and led a coalition to contain Russia. But Donald Trump has since changed course, initiating negotiations with Russia on Ukraine. To date, these talks have not yielded any meaningful peace agreement. Still, Ukraine appears to have lost its status as a top priority for Washington. The war against Iran accelerates this shift.

The United States remains powerful enough to operate on multiple fronts. Nonetheless, U.S. efforts are now concentrated on the MENA region, which drains considerable resources and requires intense focus. Global and Western media discourse has similarly pivoted away from Europe. Ukraine may soon experience a decline in military equipment supplies from Washington as the U.S. re-supplies its Gulf allies.

Challenges and Risks for Russia

Despite these short-term gains, the Gulf crisis also presents serious challenges for Moscow.

Long-term economic slowdown: If the war drags on, global economic growth could slow, leading to reduced consumption of commodities. The current spike in oil prices might eventually give way to stagnation and a market correction.
Post-war price drop: Conversely, if the war ends quickly, prices will come under pressure as supply normalizes. In either scenario, Russia must treat its current gains as temporary and prepare for market reversals.
Ukraine remains unresolved: Although U.S. attention has shifted, Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is far from over. Russia’s negotiating position has strengthened, but that may not suffice to resolve the crisis on its western borders.
Iran’s future is uncertain: Russia and Iran have no formal military alliance, but they signed a new bilateral partnership treaty last year. If Iran collapses, Moscow would lose a reliable partner in the Caspian and Gulf regions. This could threaten the North-South transport corridor, in which Tehran holds significant interests. Political instability in Iran could also negatively affect the Caucasus, a region that is itself fragile.
Gulf Arab partners: Russia maintains strong and constructive relations with major Gulf economies such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and others. It is in Moscow’s interest not to see these relationships deteriorate as a result of the crisis surrounding Iran.

Possible Scenarios

Scenario 1: Ceasefire and De-escalation
Military operations end and some form of ceasefire is reached. This would revive Gulf transport, stabilize markets, and allow regional actors to repair infrastructure and industrial damage. The problem is that such a ceasefire may prove unstable, with the threat of a new war looming.

Scenario 2: Protracted Military Conflict
A prolonged military campaign could follow. Much will depend on its outcome. A forced regime change in Iran might lower military tensions but would not guarantee long-term stability. If the war continues, it will clearly paralyze regional economic capacities.

Conclusion

Russia must approach the Gulf crisis as a strategic challenge. Regardless of how events unfold, all current gains should be regarded as temporary. The coming months will test Moscow’s ability to navigate between short-term opportunities and long-term strategic risks.