The months-long deadlock at Durand Line checkpoints has created harsh realities on the ground. Since October 2025, all regular passenger and commercial trade, bilateral transit, and most movements have been suspended, severely undermining Afghanistan’s potential as a transit corridor and Pakistan’s strategic ambition to link Gwadar and Karachi directly to Central Asia and global markets.
As of early February 2026, these crossing points function largely as conduits for deportations and forced repatriation of Afghan refugees, with no meaningful resumption of trade or transit. Pakistan conditions the operation of the checkpoints on verifiable Taliban action against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) sanctuaries and attacks, while Afghanistan rejects these allegations as baseless. Before reopening the gates, Kabul demands firm guarantees against future closures that Pakistan could use as economic leverage. This stalemate has transformed what should have been a mutually beneficial economic and transit corridor into a source of sustained economic harm and deepening regional friction.
Pakistan’s vision for Gwadar as Central Asia’s southern gateway hinges on reliable overland access through Afghanistan to tap into the region’s vast mineral, hydrocarbon, and agricultural exports. Gwadar, with its deep-water facilities, promises shorter transit times and lower costs compared to routes via Russia or corridors through China.
The recent high-level visits from Central Asian heads of state to Pakistan underscore renewed diplomatic momentum to advance this ambition, positioning Afghanistan as a critical transit link.
These visits, the first state-level engagements in over two decades for Kazakhstan and a follow-up for Uzbekistan, resulted in elevating bilateral ties to strategic partnerships, signing dozens of agreements, and explicitly committing to multimodal transport corridors passing through Afghanistan as a transit hub. During the Kazakh president’s visit, discussions focused on access to Pakistani ports, culminating in a Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership that emphasized promoting routes such as Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (KTAP) and Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan.
After more than three months of closures at key crossing points, it has become evident that regional trade and transit through Afghanistan must be institutionalized as rules-based operations rather than instrumental tools, and managed through a depoliticized framework insulated from episodic, security-driven pressures. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asian partners must commit to keeping transit points operational regardless of bilateral tensions, addressing security concerns through technical mechanisms instead of political leverage. Separating trade facilitation from security disputes is essential to transforming Afghanistan from a zone of friction into a platform for regional economic integration. Yet the deadlock, ongoing since October 2025, continues to expose persistent structural vulnerabilities.
Ground realities reveal repeated disruptions, security-driven concerns, and deep mistrust that erode confidence, as Central Asian partners increasingly view Afghan-Pakistani tensions as structural rather than temporary. Despite diplomatic optimism, progress remains constrained by political and structural hurdles. No tangible steps have been taken to reopen the crossing points for trade and transit, as security-oriented politics continue to overshadow economic engagement. Afghanistan’s demand for concrete, forward-looking guarantees reflects deep-seated mistrust. Economic connectivity cannot serve as a confidence-building measure if it is treated as a tool of leverage.
The prolonged closure of Torkham and Chaman has effectively stalled the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, diminished Pakistan’s credibility as a reliable partner, deprived both countries of transit revenues, and accelerated Afghanistan’s shift toward Chabahar and northern routes. While this shift reduces eastern dependence, it comes at higher costs. Central Asia gains alternative options but misses the efficiencies of a unified, Gwadar-linked corridor.
Without sustained reopenings and mutual concessions on security and non-coercion, the vision of Gwadar as Central Asia’s gateway remains aspirational. The impasse, rooted in unresolved disputes, is likely to extend into late 2026 or beyond, entrenching rival corridors, delaying synergies, and turning a shared strategic asset into a liability for regional stability.
To conclude, supporting ideological partners or coercing neighbors through military or economic pressure yields no lasting benefits. Sustainable progress depends on diplomatic engagement, rules-based cooperation, and depoliticized mechanisms for conflict resolution and regional economic connectivity. Lasting stability can only be achieved by separating security agendas from political and economic collaboration, ensuring that regional partnerships are built on trust, predictability, and mutually beneficial cooperation rather than coercion or confrontation.
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