The Collapse of “Strategic Depth”: How Pakistan’s Jihad Doctrine Undermined Its Statecraft

Pakistan’s statecraft has long flirted with a Faustian bargain: to wield Islamist militancy, covert proxies, and extremist ideologies as tools of foreign policy and strategic depth, especially vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India. What we are now seeing is not a “mistake” or an aberration, it is the crippling harvest of a poisonous design. The very instruments that Islamabad bred in the shadows are turning outward, exposing the country’s moral bankruptcy, strategic overreach, and diplomatic isolation.

The Proxy Factory and Its Reckoning

Over decades, Pakistani security establishment doctrine has leaned heavily on cultivating militant groups and Islamist networks — both domestically and across its borders — as instruments of influence and deterrence. The justification is often framed as “strategic depth,” especially in Afghanistan, or as a counterweight to Indian influence in South Asia. But the logic has always been perverse: Islamism, in this worldview, is not a creed but a weapon.

That weaponization never stays neatly in its sheath. It corrupts the wielder as much (or more) than the target. Now, Pakistan is reaping what it sowed. Terror groups it once tolerated or even subsidized are now international liabilities; they provoke blowback, erode legitimacy, and constrict diplomatic options.

Evidence of the Blowback: Recent Developments Speak Volumes

1. Afghanistan’s ire and sovereignty claims
   The BBC recently reported that the Afghan Taliban has accused Pakistan of violating Kabul’s sovereign territory. That’s an extraordinary turn: the very group Pakistan propped up now publicly accuses it of overreach.
   When the beneficiary of a proxy network becomes a vocal critic, it is a sign that the relationship is fraying under the weight of contradictions.
2. Pakistan’s threats to Afghanistan reveal desperation
   Pakistan’s own leadership has issued ominous messages to its neighbor — threats masked as “warnings.” That is the language of bully, not of respected statecraft. The NDTV article reflects how Islamabad still resorts to coercion rather than diplomacy. Such threats underscore how Pakistan sees Afghanistan not as an equal partner but as a theatre for strategic maneuvering.
3. Taliban diplomacy slipping beyond Pakistan’s control
   The Taliban’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, has embarked on outreach missions to Russia and India, signaling that Kabul no longer bows uncritically to Pakistani designs. His visit to Moscow and India highlights a shifting regional alignment.
   Pakistan’s perceived grip over Afghanistan’s foreign policy is now openly appears that was a misconception in the mind of Pakistan establishment. Kabul is showing its cards: relations with India, Russia, and others will be recalibrated even if Pakistan disapproves.
4. India’s growing role and recognition in Kabul
   India’s recalibrated engagement with Afghanistan reviving diplomatic presence, humanitarian investment, and direct talks, cuts at the heart of Pakistan’s strategic assumptions. The Taliban’s visit to India is not symbolic fluff; it is a salvo against Pakistan’s monopoly claims over Afghan affairs.

Moral Bankruptcy and Strategic Recklessness

What justification remains for a state that arms and incentivizes extremism, then suffers the consequences? Islamabad has long portrayed itself as at war with terror,  domestically, while enabling, funding, or turning a blind eye to terror proxies abroad. This duplicity corrodes both the moral authority and internal cohesion of the state.

Strategically, the gamble is failing. Proxy warfare is inherently volatile. Groups you patronize have their own agendas, alliances, and triggers that can erupt in directions you never intended. Pakistan’s “mines we planted in others’ lands” are now detonating near home.

Diplomatically, Pakistan’s credibility is fraying. Nations skeptical of its intent see a state that speaks one language publicly, “counterterrorism, moderation, peace”, and practices quite another behind closed doors. The result is isolation, mistrust, and the erosion of soft power.

 

 

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