Russia Open to Territorial Swaps as Part of Potential Ukraine Deal, Putin Seeks Full Control of Donbas

President Vladimir Putin has signaled a potential openness to exchanging some occupied Ukrainian territory as part of a negotiated settlement, but insists on Russia retaining the entirety of the Donbas region, according to a report from one of Russia’s leading newspapers, Kommersant.

The report, filed by veteran Kremlin correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov, states that Putin outlined these positions to a group of Russia’s top businessmen during a late-night meeting at the Kremlin on December 24. Putin reportedly told the gathering that Russia remains ready to make the concessions he outlined during talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, last August, which he summarized as, “Donbas is ours.”

Putin’s Reported Demands and Concessions

In essence, the Russian leader’s stance, as reported, involves two key elements:

1. An Uncompromising Claim on Donbas: Putin demands Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Donbas), including the approximately 10% portion still under Ukrainian control.

2. Possible Swaps Elsewhere: Outside the Donbas, the report suggests a “partial exchange of territories” controlled by Russian forces could be on the table. This implies Russia might relinquish control over some captured areas in other regions in return for Ukraine formally ceding Donbas.

The report also details other sensitive issues under discussion:

• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Putin informed the businessmen that joint Russian-U.S. management of the Europe’s largest nuclear facility is being negotiated. He further claimed the U.S. has expressed interest in cryptocurrency mining near the plant and that it should continue to partially supply Ukraine with electricity.

• Broader Territorial Demands: These reported exchanges follow Putin’s public statement on December 19, where he said any peace deal must be based on his 2024 conditions: a full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, and Kyiv’s official renunciation of NATO ambitions.

Ukrainian and U.S. Positions

The potential for a diplomatic breakthrough remains uncertain, as key points conflict directly with Ukraine’s stated principles.

In remarks released on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Ukrainian and U.S. delegations had moved closer to finalizing a broad 20-point plan during weekend talks in Miami. However, he highlighted two critical areas of continued disagreement with Washington:

1. Ukraine ceding the parts of Donbas it still holds.

2. The future status of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The U.S. Role and the “Anchorage Understandings”

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to end the war, has deployed senior envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to negotiate with Russia, Ukraine, and European powers. While the full details of the U.S. proposal remain secret, Russian officials have frequently alluded to unspecified “understandings” reached between Putin and Trump at their August summit in Anchorage, which appear to form the basis of the current back-channel discussions.

Current Military Reality

Any territorial discussion starts from the current front lines. By Russian estimates, Moscow controls:

• All of Crimea (annexed in 2014).

• About 90% of the Donbas.

• Roughly 75% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

• Smaller portions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

The Kremlin continues to refer to its full-scale invasion launched in February 2022 as a “special military operation.”

Analysis

The Kommersant report, if accurate, reveals a potential Russian bargaining strategy: hardening the demand on Donbas (framed as non-negotiable) while showing tactical flexibility on other occupied territories. This approach may aim to exploit perceived differences between Kyiv and its Western allies and test Ukraine’s resolve on its territorial integrity. The involvement of major Russian businessmen suggests the Kremlin is also preparing key economic figures for a potential deal’s implications. However, with Zelensky publicly rejecting the cession of Donbas and the U.S. position still unclear, the path to an agreement remains fraught with obstacles that have so far proven insurmountable.

 

 

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