Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Wednesday that diplomatic efforts to end the war with Russia are approximately “90 percent” complete but warned that the final, decisive issues remain unresolved. In a sober New Year’s Eve address, he emphasized that Ukraine seeks peace, but not at any cost, and that ceding territory to reward Moscow’s aggression would be a grave mistake.
“The peace agreement is 90 percent ready. Ten percent remains. And that is far more than just numbers,” Zelenskyy said in a video posted to his Telegram account. “Those are the 10 percent that will determine the fate of peace, the fate of Ukraine and Europe.”
The Stumbling Blocks: Territory and Security
US-led diplomatic efforts to resolve Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II have intensified in recent weeks. However, a chasm remains on core issues, primarily territorial control in a post-war settlement. Russia currently occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and large swathes of the eastern Donbas region. Moscow is demanding official recognition of its sovereignty over these areas as part of any deal—a condition Kyiv has consistently rejected, arguing that surrendering land would only embolden future Russian aggression.
Zelenskyy underscored that any viable agreement must include ironclad, long-term security guarantees from Western allies to deter Russia from launching a new invasion in the future. “We want an end to the war,” he said, “but with a just peace that ensures our sovereignty and security.”
Putin’s Defiant Stance and Kremlin’s “Toughened” Position
The Ukrainian leader’s speech came just hours after US officials, including senior envoy Steve Witkoff, held discussions with Ukrainian and European security advisers on next steps. It also contrasted sharply with the message from the Kremlin.
In his own annual New Year’s address, Russian President Vladimir Putin—speaking ahead of Moscow time—urged citizens to “believe in victory.” Addressing soldiers he called “heroes,” Putin declared, “We believe in you and our victory.” He has repeatedly framed the war as an existential struggle and vowed to seize all territory he has illegally claimed as part of Russia should negotiations fail.
The Kremlin announced this week it would “toughen” its negotiating stance following an alleged drone attack on a presidential residence. Russian authorities accused Ukraine of launching “a targeted, carefully planned” strike with dozens of drones against Putin’s lakeside home in the Valdai region, between Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The defense ministry released night-vision footage of a damaged drone in a snowy forest, calling it a “terrorist act” personally targeting Putin.
Moscow stated this incident would lead to a more rigid position at the bargaining table. However, independent analysts have questioned the veracity of the claim. The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted it had seen “no footage or reporting that typically follows Ukrainian deep strikes to corroborate the Kremlin’s claims.”
Putin has not commented publicly on the alleged attack. His whereabouts at the time were not disclosed, consistent with the intense secrecy that shrouds his private life and security arrangements.
A Conflict Grinding Toward a Fifth Year
As the war enters its fifth calendar year, the human and physical toll continues to mount. The conflict has unleashed a tidal wave of destruction, displacing millions of Ukrainians and reducing entire cities to ruins. The frontline remains largely static but fiercely contested, with both sides suffering heavy casualties.
The diplomatic gap highlighted by Zelenskyy—the critical “10 percent”—encapsulates the fundamental clash at the heart of the war: Ukraine’s demand for a restoration of its territorial integrity and sovereignty versus Russia’s insistence on retaining its conquests. As talks continue, these irreconcilable positions ensure that the path to peace, while allegedly 90 percent charted, remains fraught with the most perilous obstacles.
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