Egypt’s Options in Confronting Israel: From Warnings to a Potential Alliance

Escalating Rhetoric and Regional Alarms

On September 16, the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a stark warning, declaring that the region stands on the “brink of a new phase of comprehensive chaos.” This statement, a direct response to Israel’s recent escalation in Gaza, attributed the instability to “Israeli recklessness and escalating arrogance.”

This declaration aligns with the outcomes of the Arab-Islamic summit held in Doha on September 15 and reflects the growing apprehension among Arab and Islamic nations. The consensus is that Israeli policy, marked by increasing aggression not only in Palestine but also through actions targeting Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and most recently, Qatar, now poses a fundamental threat to regional security.

Egypt’s Post-Gaza Strategic Calculus

Cairo’s concerns are multifaceted. Israeli aggression is no longer seen as confined to Gaza and the West Bank but is perceived as a regional campaign. The unprecedented attack on Qatar—a key U.S. ally and a central mediator in the Gaza conflict—signals to Egypt a dangerous level of Israeli impunity, one that operates beyond the bounds of international law and rational statecraft.

Egypt fears that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, facing domestic political pressures, might embark on perilous military adventures that directly threaten Egypt’s national security. This is especially true given Egypt’s direct border with Gaza, where a severe humanitarian crisis and what many describe as a genocidal war are unfolding.

Egypt’s specific anxieties are rooted in several key factors:

1. The Radicalization of the Israeli Leadership: The failure to achieve its stated political objectives in Gaza has increased the desperation and belligerence of Netanyahu’s government. A protracted, unresolved conflict increases the risk of a regional conflagration, drawing in Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen more deeply, as recent events have demonstrated.

2. The Strategic Threat of Palestinian Displacement: Egypt believes Israel has moved beyond its initial goal of dismantling Hamas and is now actively pursuing the de facto occupation of all Palestinian territories and the forced displacement of their population. Any such mass displacement would most likely be directed towards the Egyptian Sinai. This is evidenced by Israel’s military operations pushing Palestinian civilians southward toward the Egyptian border. Cairo views this as an existential threat—not only to the Palestinian cause but also to its own national security and the integrity of its peace treaty with Israel (the Camp David Accords), a point President Sisi emphasized at the Doha summit.

3. The Danger of Expansionist Ideology: Cairo is deeply troubled by the messianic and expansionist rhetoric of Netanyahu and the far-right, which references concepts of a “Greater Israel” based on theological claims. Netanyahu’s statement on August 12, describing his “historic and spiritual mission for a Greater Israel,” is seen in Cairo not as mere political posturing but as a genuine ideological driver. Forcing Palestinians into Sinai under brutal bombardment could tempt Israel to gamble on a military incursion into the peninsula to realize these expansionist dreams.

4. Unwavering U.S. Complicity: The current American administration is perceived as being in lockstep with Netanyahu’s policies, providing indispensable political, economic, and military cover. Direct U.S. involvement in strikes on Yemen and Iran reinforces this perception. Furthermore, former President Trump’s past statements—that Israel looks “small on the map,” his moving of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights—are seen as indicative of a permissive U.S. stance toward Israeli expansion at the expense of Arab nations.

Forging an Alliance of the Affected

If Egypt is to take the Israeli threat seriously, it must consider proactive measures to block Israel’s path and prevent the realization of its expansionist ambitions. Several strategic pathways are available:

• Bolstering Palestinian Resilience: The primary immediate goal must be to foil the displacement plan by enhancing the ability of Palestinians to remain in Gaza. This necessitates ensuring the continuous flow of humanitarian aid through all possible means. Gaza’s resilience is not just about protecting the Palestinian cause; it is a direct defense of Egyptian and Arab national security. A Israel bogged down and drained in Gaza is an Israel with a reduced appetite for further colonial expansion.

• Building a Deterrence Alliance: Egypt should spearhead the formation of a formal alliance or coordinated framework among Arab and Islamic nations most affected and threatened by Israeli aggression. This group would include countries like Jordan, Qatar, Lebanon, and others who have been directly targeted. Such a coalition could create a crucial balance of power, deterring Israel through collective political, economic, and security measures. This framework would address the current state of “silence and abandonment” lamented by leaders in Doha and could serve as a practical alternative to the paralyzed unanimity of the 57-member Arab and Islamic blocs, whose divergent international alliances often prevent decisive action.

• Leveraging International Legitimacy: Such an alliance would operate from a position of strength in the court of international public opinion. Israel is increasingly isolated and condemned at the United Nations for its crimes in Gaza and its attack on Qatar, a trusted international mediator. This provides the proposed coalition with significant legitimacy, grounded in the defense of national sovereignty and the enforcement of international law.

The Cost of Silence Outweighs the Cost of Confrontation

The prevailing assessment is that the Israeli far-right, emboldened by perceived U.S. support, views the current war as a historic opportunity to redraw the map of the Middle East according to its own standards. This project necessitates the subjugation of all forces and states opposing Israeli colonial hegemony.

Consequently, it is expected that Israel will continue its political-theological radicalization and may carry out further assaults on Arab and Islamic nations to achieve its geographic expansion and the establishment of a hegemonic “Greater Israel.” In this scenario, the cost of inaction and silence for countries like Egypt becomes far greater than the cost of a coordinated confrontation. Relying on Washington to restrain Israel has proven to be a failed strategy; regardless of their ties to the U.S., Arab and Islamic nations will never be as prioritized as European allies or Ukraine.

A Shifting Global Order

The international system is in a state of flux. The rise of China and Russia, along with their strategic partnerships in frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, is reshaping global alliances. This process is accelerated by the perceived unpredictability of U.S. policy. In this new context, it is imperative for Egypt, as a major Arab state, to join with other influential Arab and Islamic nations to form the core of a coalition opposed to Israeli aggression.

This is not merely an ideological stance but a strategic necessity born of converging interests protected by international law. Its most immediate and vital manifestation is supporting the Palestinian people’s right to remain on their land and stopping the aggression on Gaza—a fundamental prerequisite for Arab and Islamic national security in the face of a belligerent and ideologically driven Israel.