Washington and Kabul: U.S. Strategy Amid Regional Influence and

Geopolitical Challenges

Afghanistan currently stands at a pivotal juncture in the regional and international balance of power. The country’s political and social landscape is undergoing a complex phase of strategic realignment. Although U.S. military forces have withdrawn, Washington remains an “absent presence,” monitoring and influencing key aspects of Afghan decision-making. Leveraging a network of regional partners—particularly in the Gulf—Washington seeks to support necessary reforms and transformations that align with international norms while respecting Afghanistan’s cultural and political traditions.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, China, and Iran are actively seeking to expand and redefine their influence within Afghanistan, a state that serves as both a strategic gateway to Central Asia and a key node in regional security equations. This competition has turned Afghanistan into a highly contested arena where political influence, economic interests, and strategic imperatives intersect, challenging Washington’s capacity to safeguard its interests and maintain regional stability.

Washington: The Absent Presence
The United States recognizes that leaving Afghanistan to regional competition risks long-term strategic interests, whether regarding India or Central Asia. Historical experience demonstrates that overlooking Pakistan’s policies generates security vacuums, empowering extremist groups that pose direct threats to U.S. interests and regional stability.

Accordingly, any U.S. strategy must draw lessons from post-2001 experiences, confront realities on the ground, and treat Afghanistan as a critical arena that cannot be left ambiguous or subject to regional power struggles. This approach does not imply a return to direct military intervention but calls for a clear and firm policy toward Islamabad, preventing Afghanistan from being exploited as a political bargaining chip or steered toward actors whose agendas conflict with U.S. interests.

By leveraging regional partnerships—particularly with Gulf states—Washington can balance political pressure with economic support, preserve local and international legitimacy, and maintain its role as an “absent presence,” simultaneously exercising oversight and influence.

Pakistan: From Strategic Controller to Waning Influence
Pakistan seeks to regain its historical influence in Afghanistan following its erosion after the Taliban’s takeover. Despite long-standing historical ties with Kabul that previously granted leverage, Islamabad faces growing concern over diminishing influence vis-à-vis the Taliban and the rise of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This has prompted Pakistan to pursue a sustained policy of pressure on Kabul, aiming to extract security and strategic concessions yet to be realized.

Pakistan’s strategy also aims to demonstrate its reliability as a partner in Western security frameworks, despite persistent accusations that it prioritizes the agendas of major powers over its own national interest. Domestically, opinion is divided: some view pressure on Afghanistan as resetting regional rules, while others see a repetition of past errors, risking isolation, miscalculated confrontation, and erosion of Pakistan’s historical influence.

China: Pragmatic Investment and Security Engagement
China’s engagement with Afghanistan is cautious and pragmatic, driven by the need to safeguard investments exceeding $60 billion within the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. Frustration with Pakistan’s performance and ongoing instability has led Beijing to engage directly with the Taliban, reducing reliance on Islamabad. Afghanistan represents a strategic corridor to Central Asia and a cornerstone of the Belt and Road Initiative. China’s cooperation with the Taliban thus seeks to expand Chinese influence while limiting Pakistan’s ability to monopolize relations with Kabul.

Iran: Quiet Strategic Influence
Iran operates with caution, capitalizing on limited trust in Pakistan as a reliable partner in security matters or in its dealings with Washington. Tehran has pursued a low-profile strategy of expanding trade influence with Afghanistan, leveraging Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions to strengthen its regional presence without direct confrontation with other major powers.

India: Building Strategic Partnerships
Historically, India has cultivated robust relations with a central, effective Afghan government, in contrast to Pakistan’s engagement with peripheral enclaves and exploitation of internal fragility. This approach has reduced Kabul’s reliance on Pakistani goods, reopened channels with Central Asian states, and enhanced India’s political and economic presence, reshaping traditional power balances in Afghanistan’s vicinity.

Potential Scenarios for Afghanistan’s Future

1. Enhanced U.S. and International Influence: Washington’s support for the Afghan government and civil society through regional partners could promote relative stability, curb extremist groups, and safeguard U.S. strategic interests in Central Asia.

2. Rising Regional Competition: A weakened U.S. role may enable Pakistan, China, and Iran to expand influence, transforming Afghanistan into a proxy battleground and threatening U.S. interests while facilitating the resurgence of armed groups.

3. Comprehensive Internal Crisis: U.S. indifference to illegal interventions by neighboring states, coupled with the current government’s limited capacity, could precipitate conflicts that serve no party’s interests.

4. Inclusive Political Settlement: Achieving political stability would require a nationally and internationally supported internal agreement, providing Gulf states an avenue to support stability and enabling comprehensive reforms through Afghan-led dialogue involving credible national actors. Such an agreement would limit external influence while preserving Afghanistan’s sovereignty and independent decision-making.

Conclusion
Despite the U.S. withdrawal, Afghanistan remains a critical strategic pivot that cannot be left to regional rivalries. Neglecting Pakistan’s policies deepens security vacuums and empowers extremist groups, threatening regional stability and U.S. interests. Conversely, India’s robust engagement with the central government has reduced Kabul’s dependence on Pakistan, repositioned regional strategy, and maintained a balance of influence around Afghanistan.

An American academic and political writer of Afghan descent, serving on the editorial board of the White House Platform.

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