GAZA CITY — The precarious ceasefire in Gaza is showing signs of unraveling, as a new spike in violence and a deep impasse over a U.S.-backed peace plan fuel fears of a return to full-scale conflict. Israeli forces killed three Palestinians near the Gaza perimeter on Monday, underscoring the daily tensions that threaten a truce approved over six weeks ago to international relief.
The incidents, which Palestinian medics attributed to an Israeli drone missile and tank shell, highlight the struggle to build upon the initial cessation of hostilities and move toward the more ambitious, and contentious, phases of a lasting agreement.
A Return to Lethal Violence
According to Palestinian health officials, Monday’s violence involved two separate events. East of Khan Younis, an Israeli drone fired a missile at a group of people, killing two and wounding a third. Simultaneously, a tank shell struck east of Gaza City, killing one person.
The Israeli military stated its forces had opened fire after identifying what it called “terrorists” crossing a designated security line—known as the “yellow line”—and approaching its troops, “posing an immediate threat.”
These latest deaths bring the total number of Palestinians killed by Israeli fire since the October 9th truce to at least 342, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. In the same period, Israel reports that three of its soldiers have been killed by militant gunfire. This ongoing, low-level conflict points to the fragility of the current calm.
A Truce in Name Only?
The truce, signed by Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, halted two years of devastating warfare that had left thousands dead and Gaza’s infrastructure in ruins. However, the agreement was always understood as a temporary measure, deliberately leaving the most intractable issues—such as a lasting security arrangement and the reconstruction of the besieged coastal enclave—for future negotiations. The result has been a frozen conflict, unresolved and volatile.
Both sides have consistently accused the other of breaching the agreement. Hamas points to continued Israeli incursions and targeted killings, while Israel alleges that militant groups have used the calm to regroup and rearm.
The Shadow of the Trump Plan
Complicating the landscape is U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, which received formal backing from the United Nations Security Council last week. The plan envisions an interim technocratic Palestinian government in Gaza, overseen by an international “board of peace” and, most controversially, backed by an international security force. The plan also mandates reforms for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank but was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007.
The proposal has become a new flashpoint. A central point of contention is the mandate of the proposed international force. Israel insists it must be empowered to disarm Hamas, a precondition the militant group has vehemently rejected without guarantees of Palestinian statehood—a distant prospect that Trump’s plan only vaguely envisions as an ultimate goal and which the current Israeli government has ruled out.
A Hamas spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, stated that the group told Egyptian mediators that Israeli violations were undermining the ceasefire. He argued that any international force should instead focus on “keeping Israel’s military away from Palestinian civilians.”
Negotiations Mired in Uncertainty
Efforts to advance the process are underway but appear mired in complexity. A Hamas delegation, led by its exiled chief Khalil al-Hayya, was in Cairo over the weekend for talks with Egyptian mediators on the next phase of the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, in a move seen as building support for the U.S. plan, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, whom Trump has suggested may join the “board of peace,” met with the PA’s deputy leader, Hussein al-Sheikh, in the West Bank. Al-Sheikh said they discussed the requirements for Palestinian self-determination following the UN resolution.
However, deep skepticism persists. A Palestinian official close to the Cairo talks, speaking on condition of anonymity, described a state of “complete uncertainty.”
“The Americans haven’t put forward a detailed plan. It is unclear what kind of forces, what their tasks are, what their roles are, and where they will be stationed,” the official said. “Any deployment of forces without a political track, without an understanding with all Palestinian factions and powers in Gaza, would complicate things even further.”
With the peace process stalled, the security situation fragile, and trust between the parties at a nadir, the killings on Monday serve as a grim reminder that the truce is a temporary respite, not a promise of peace. The path forward remains fraught with obstacles, and the risk of a rapid descent back into widespread violence is ever-present.
With reporting from Reuters.
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