At the United Nations General Assembly, US President Donald Trump once again delivered sharp criticism of China. But in an unusual twist, he also lumped in India and Russia, faulting them for purchasing oil that helps sustain Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine. His remarks came just weeks after Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared side by side at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit — a tableau of deepening non-Western alignment.
For Washington, Modi’s “eastward pivot” highlights a broader challenge: how to recalibrate American policy in South Asia. The familiar assumption of India as the United States’ natural ally, and Pakistan as the perennial problem state, no longer fits a region reshaped by global rivalries. With Modi leaning toward Moscow and Beijing, Pakistan unexpectedly finds itself presented as a potential strategic counterweight.
Rethinking Pakistan
Conventional Beltway wisdom has long cast Pakistan in a negative light. The specter of Osama bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad and years of strained counterterrorism cooperation hardened perceptions. Trump himself once echoed this view in his first term. Yet recent developments suggest he has begun setting aside these biases, viewing Pakistan less as a liability and more as a strategic asset.
Islamabad has skillfully exploited this opening. The extradition of a suspect tied to the Kabul airport bombing that killed 13 US troops signaled goodwill, and Washington responded by designating the Mageed Brigade of the Balochistan Liberation Army as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The real inflection point came in May, when fresh skirmishes between Pakistan and India revived fears of nuclear escalation.
It was in this tense context that Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, now elevated to Field Marshal, Asim Munir, caught Trump’s attention. With US planning circles openly weighing a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump remarked that Pakistan “knows a lot about Iran” — an acknowledgment of Islamabad’s unique vantage point.
The Trump–Munir Connection
The June 18 White House luncheon between Trump and Munir was unprecedented. Rarely has a Pakistani military chief been hosted at such a high level. Critics decried the unusual protocol, warning of undue militarization of diplomacy. But Trump, characteristically transactional, viewed it differently: a practical way to bypass diplomatic inertia and deal directly with Pakistan’s most powerful decision-maker.
The results came quickly. Pakistan, long advocating “trade, not aid,” secured a major trade deal. US tariffs on Pakistani exports were cut to 19 percent, down from a proposed 29 percent, giving Pakistan an advantage over regional competitors. In return, Islamabad agreed to import US oil and agricultural products while opening its critical minerals sector — including copper and rare earths — to American firms.
US companies such as Fluor Corporation are now preparing to enter Pakistan’s energy and mining industries, while the US Development Finance Corporation and EXIM Bank will co-finance the massive Reko Diq mine, estimated at over $70 billion in value. Pakistan’s finance ministry hailed the agreements as “the beginning of a new era of economic collaboration,” stretching from energy to IT, cryptocurrency, and beyond.
India’s Uneasy Position
India, having assumed near-automatic US backing in regional disputes, is unsettled by the thaw in US-Pakistan ties. Modi’s refusal to scale back ties with Russia, despite the war in Ukraine, has placed New Delhi at odds with Washington’s strategic priorities. His embrace of the SCO, doubling down on partnerships with Beijing and Moscow, further underscores the divergence.
For Trump, the message is simple: while India remains important, Pakistan provides leverage — especially when New Delhi appears unwilling to recalibrate. Islamabad’s role as a counterbalance may not replace India’s, but it diversifies Washington’s options in a shifting landscape.
Delivering on Commitments
For Pakistan, the opportunity is significant but fragile. Counterterrorism cooperation must be reliable, not episodic. Trade promises must be honored, and US companies operating in volatile regions like Balochistan must be protected. Any failure risks undermining the fragile trust Trump and Munir have built.
Critics in both countries worry that privileging Pakistan’s military leadership legitimizes nondemocratic governance. This concern is valid, yet in practice, any meaningful reorientation of Pakistan’s foreign policy requires buy-in from the military establishment. The Trump–Munir dynamic, unconventional as it is, could be a pragmatic way to advance mutual interests in a region defined by volatility.
Why Pakistan Still Matters
Dismissal of Pakistan as a failing state misses its enduring strategic weight. Consider the fundamentals:
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The world’s fifth-largest population, two-thirds under the age of 30.
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Abundant natural resources, including copper, gold, and rare earths.
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An increasingly entrepreneurial private sector.
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A capable diplomatic corps with ties across the Gulf and broader Muslim world.
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Geographic centrality, bordering Iran, Afghanistan, China, and India.
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A powerful military, historically linked to the US, with nuclear deterrence capabilities.
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A growing diaspora with political and economic influence in the West.
These assets make Pakistan too strategically important for Washington to ignore.
The China Connection
Perhaps Pakistan’s greatest value lies in its unique position between Washington and Beijing. Every major global issue — trade, climate, technology, security — is now filtered through the US-China lens. In this competition, Islamabad can again serve as a bridge.
The parallel with history is striking. In 1972, Pakistan under President Yahya Khan facilitated Nixon’s secret opening to Mao Zedong, reshaping the Cold War. Today, with China as America’s primary strategic rival rather than a distant communist power, the stakes are even higher. Trump, eyeing a second détente that focuses on trade stability, industrial self-reliance, and avoiding direct conflict, may again find Pakistan indispensable.
Islamabad’s participation in the SCO underscores its long-standing alignment with Beijing, but unlike India, Pakistan tempers its presence with less fanfare. Its deep stake in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) gives it insight into China’s regional ambitions. And Munir, well-versed in both Western and Chinese strategic thinking, is a natural interlocutor for Washington.
Conclusion
The unfolding Trump–Munir relationship signals more than a diplomatic experiment; it reflects a recalibration of American priorities in South Asia. Pakistan is no longer viewed solely through the lens of counterterrorism or aid dependency but as a multi-dimensional actor with economic, strategic, and diplomatic utility.
Whether this opening produces lasting change depends on Pakistan’s ability to deliver on commitments and on Washington’s willingness to embrace pragmatism over orthodoxy. But one lesson from history is clear: when Pakistan is dismissed, the US loses a crucial lever in the balance of power. When it is engaged, Islamabad can help bridge divides — including the world’s most consequential one, between China and the United States.
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