Americans’ Support for Israel Dramatically Declines, Times/Siena Poll Finds, Signaling a Historic Shift
A seismic reversal in American public opinion is underway regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University, eroding decades of steadfast, bipartisan support for a key U.S. ally.
Nearly two years into the war in the Gaza Strip, U.S. support for Israel has undergone a profound transformation. The poll reveals that large shares of American voters now hold starkly negative views about the Israeli government’s management of the conflict, a sentiment that has prompted a striking reassessment of their broader sympathies in the decades-old struggle.
For the first time since The Times began asking the question in 1998, slightly more voters now side with Palestinians over Israelis. In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, American voters broadly sympathized with Israelis, with 47% siding with Israel compared to 20% with Palestinians. The new poll shows a dramatic narrowing: 34% now side with Israel, while 35% side with Palestinians, with 31% unsure or backing both equally.
This shift in sympathy is coupled with a stunning reversal on policy. A majority of American voters now oppose sending additional economic and military aid to Israel. About 6 in 10 voters said that Israel should end its military campaign, even if the remaining Israeli hostages were not released or Hamas was not eliminated. Furthermore, 40% of voters now believe Israel is intentionally killing civilians in Gaza, nearly double the number who agreed with that statement in the 2023 poll.
Taken together, these findings depict a major deterioration in support for a staunch U.S. ally. The drop represents an unusually large shift in public opinion in this hyper-polarized era, where views typically move incrementally unless shaken by cataclysmic events.
A Deepening Partisan Divide
The overall decline masks a stark and growing partisan schism. While Republican support has softened only modestly, the movement among Democrats has been precipitous.
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Democratic Voters: In 2023, Democrats were evenly divided in their sympathies. Now, rank-and-file Democrats across the country overwhelmingly side with Palestinians—54% to 13%. More than 8 in 10 Democrats say Israel should stop the war, and nearly 6 in 10 believe Israel is intentionally killing civilians, double the share from 2023.
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Republican Voters: In contrast, Republicans largely continue their strong support. Seven in 10 favor additional aid to Israel, a majority want the military campaign to continue until all hostages are released, and nearly half believe the Israeli military is taking sufficient precautions to prevent civilian deaths. Republicans still sympathize with Israel over Palestinians by a margin of 64% to 9%, though this marks a 12-point drop from 2023.
Voices from the Electorate
The poll captures the personal reasoning behind these statistical shifts.
Austin Mugleston, a 33-year-old Democrat from Blackfoot, Idaho, saw his support wane. “I actually was pretty pro-Israel the last few years, especially hearing about the devastating terrorist night of Oct. 7,” he said. “Nobody should go through that. But for how long it’s taking and from how much worse Israel is doing to Palestinians, it just doesn’t feel like a level playing field anymore.”
For Shannon Carey, a 39-year-old Democrat from Connecticut, the imagery of the war has been formative. “As a mother, seeing those children is horrifying,” said Carey, a physician assistant. “This isn’t a war. It’s a genocide.” She now believes the U.S. should stop its military and financial support, which she says is funding a “humanitarian crisis.”
Even among Republicans, there are notes of caution. Mason Northrup, a 29-year-old Trump supporter from St. Louis, said, “He needs to back off a little bit because the Israelis are capable of pulling off some pretty crazy stuff. We should let them fight their own war.”
The Unexpected Drivers: Older, White Democrats
The most significant movement within the Democratic Party has come from an unexpected demographic: white, college-educated, older Democrats, who have formed the backbone of the party in recent elections. While younger and non-white Democrats were already more sympathetic to Palestinians when the conflict began, this older group has undergone a remarkable conversion.
In 2023, Democratic voters ages 45 and up sympathized with Israel over Palestinians by a 2-to-1 margin. That ratio has now flipped, with 42% saying they sympathize more with Palestinians, compared to 17% who feel more sympathetic toward Israel.
Patti West, a 67-year-old retiree from central Florida, exemplifies this shift. A long-time supporter of U.S. involvement, she struggled with the idea of cutting aid but ultimately concluded it was counterproductive. “Why do we keep funding this?” West asked. “This has been going since I was kid, and it’s still going on. They are going to hate each other forever.”
Political Repercussions and the Road Ahead
The poll highlights profound challenges for the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance. Israel has been the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign aid since its founding in 1948. The survey suggests that the political consensus underpinning that support is fracturing, with younger voters leading the charge. Nearly 7 in 10 voters under the age of 30 said they opposed additional economic or military aid to Israel, a stark indicator of potential long-term pressure on the relationship.
The findings also place the political dilemma for leaders in sharp relief. President Joe Biden has faced fierce criticism from within his own party for his support of Israel, including disruptive protests, even as he has increasingly taken a harder line with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The data reveals the depth of the discontent he must navigate.
Conversely, the poll underscores how support for Israel has become firmly entrenched as a Republican position, with former President Donald Trump aligning himself closely with Netanyahu. This realignment suggests that U.S. Middle East policy may become even more volatile, shifting dramatically with each change in administration.
The Times/Siena poll makes it clear that the war in Gaza has not only reshaped the landscape of the conflict itself but has also fundamentally altered the American public’s perception of it, ending an era of automatic support and opening a new, more contentious chapter in the U.S.-Israel relationship.
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