UNDP Warns Afghanistan’s New Development Strategy Faces Major Risks

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that Afghanistan’s newly launched National Development Strategy (ANDS 2025–2030) is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets unless deep-rooted structural challenges are urgently addressed.

The strategy—introduced by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) and the first national development plan since its return to power in 2021—aims to guide the allocation of scarce domestic resources in an environment marked by the near-total withdrawal of international aid. UNDP acknowledged that, under current constraints, the plan provides an important policy framework for economic planning and prioritization.

According to the strategy, the government seeks to achieve annual economic growth of 3–5 percent, increase exports by 10 percent, attract up to $5 billion in foreign investment by 2030, and expand infrastructure, energy production, and extractive industries as key drivers of growth.

However, UNDP cautioned that the plan faces serious implementation risks due to overlapping and compounding crises. These include Afghanistan’s continued lack of international recognition, a severe and prolonged humanitarian emergency, the mass return of migrants and refugees, and escalating climate-related shocks such as droughts and floods.

The agency identified two binding constraints that could critically undermine the strategy’s success: restrictions on women and acute energy shortages.

UNDP noted that bans on girls’ education beyond primary school, along with limitations on women’s employment, mobility, and participation in public life, have dramatically reduced female involvement in the economy. These restrictions, it warned, make sustained economic growth, productivity gains, and inclusive development virtually impossible.

At the same time, Afghanistan’s energy crisis remains a major obstacle to industrial and private-sector development. UNDP highlighted that current electricity supply stands at only 0.7 gigawatts, far below the estimated national demand of around five gigawatts. This severe shortfall continues to deter investment, constrain manufacturing, and limit job creation.

UNDP concluded that without meaningful progress in lifting restrictions on women and urgently closing the energy gap, Afghanistan’s National Development Strategy is likely to remain largely aspirational rather than transformative.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has not yet publicly commented on the UNDP assessment.

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