Tens of Millions Risk Hunger as Hormuz Standoff Blocks Fertilizer, UN Official Warns

Tens of millions of people could face severe hunger and starvation if fertilizer shipments are not soon allowed through the Strait of Hormuz, the head of a UN task force on the looming humanitarian crisis told AFP on Monday.

Iran has effectively choked the strategic waterway for months  through which a third of the world’s fertilizer supplies normally pass  in retaliation for the war launched by the United States and Israel on February 28. The blockade has disrupted a trade critical for farmers worldwide, who are racing against the end of planting seasons.

“We have a few weeks ahead of us to prevent what will likely be a massive humanitarian crisis,” Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) and leader of the UN task force, said in an interview in Paris.

“We may witness a crisis that will force 45 million more people into hunger and starvation,” he added.

The UN secretary-general created the task force in March to spearhead a mechanism that would allow fertilizers and related raw materials  such as ammonia, sulfur, and urea  to pass through the strait. For weeks, Moreira da Silva has been working to convince the belligerent parties to permit even a limited number of ships through, and has met with representatives from “more than 100 countries” to rally support for the proposed mechanism.

While the ultimate goal remains a “lasting peace” deal in the region and “freedom of navigation for all commodities” through the strait, Moreira da Silva stressed that “the problem is the planting season can’t wait.” In some African nations, planting windows are set to close within weeks.

Global attention has largely focused on the economic impacts of the throttled oil and gas trade, but the United Nations has been sounding the alarm over the threat the blockade poses to world food security. Countries in Africa and Asia are expected to be particularly hard hit, as many rely heavily on imported fertilizers to sustain agricultural output.

‘Political will’ missing

Moreira da Silva said the UN could have its proposed shipping mechanism operational within seven days. However, even if the strait were to reopen immediately, he warned, it would take three to four months for supply chains to return to normal.

“It’s just a matter of time,” he said. “If we don’t stop the origin of the crisis soon, we will have to deal with the consequences through humanitarian aid.”

While global food prices have not yet exploded, Moreira da Silva noted a “massive increase” in fertilizer costs. Agricultural experts warn that this will likely lead to a drop in farming productivity and ultimately send food prices soaring  worsening hunger in vulnerable regions.

According to Moreira da Silva, moving just five vessels per day of fertilizers and related raw materials through the strait would be enough to avert the worst outcomes for farmers.

What is missing, he said, is “the political will.”

“We can’t procrastinate on what is possible to do, and what is urgent to do  which is to let the fertilizers cross the strait and, through that, minimize the risk of massive food insecurity at the global level.”

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