More Than 11 Million Afghans Face Crisis-Level Hunger as Food Affordability Worsens, Report Finds

More than 11 million people in Afghanistan are expected to face crisis-level hunger in 2026, while workers across much of the country continue to struggle to afford even the most basic food staples, according to a new report released by Data for Afghanistan, a US-based research organization.

The report projects that between April and September 2026, over 11 million Afghans will experience IPC Phase 3 or higher food insecurity  categories classified as “crisis,” “emergency,” or “catastrophe.” The findings highlight the continued deterioration of living conditions across the country despite modest signs of economic growth.

Researchers identified nine provinces  Badakhshan, Balkh, Bamyan, Daykundi, Faryab, Ghor, Jawzjan, Kunar and Sar-e-Pul  where at least 40 percent of food-insecure residents are projected to fall into IPC Phase 3 or worse, placing them among the country’s most vulnerable regions.

Among them, Jawzjan recorded the highest share of severe food insecurity, with half of its food-insecure population expected to face crisis conditions or worse. Faryab, Daykundi and Ghor each registered 45 percent, while Bamyan, Balkh, Sar-e-Pul, Kunar and Badakhshan each stood at 40 percent.

The analysis also found that food affordability remains a major obstacle for millions of Afghan households, particularly those dependent on daily wage labor.

Using a measure known as Flour Purchasing Power (FPP)  which calculates how many kilograms of low-quality wheat flour an unskilled laborer can buy with one day’s wages  researchers estimated a national median purchasing power of 10.2 kilograms per day. Seventeen of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces fell below that threshold, indicating weak purchasing power and declining access to essential food items for low-income workers.

Nuristan recorded the weakest purchasing power in the country, where a day’s wages could buy only 7.1 kilograms of flour. Other provinces with low purchasing power included Samangan, Kunar, Uruzgan, Wardak, Paktika and Faryab.

At the opposite end of the scale, Nimroz recorded the strongest purchasing power, with a day’s wage able to buy 16.1 kilograms of flour. Kabul, Baghlan and Sar-e-Pul also ranked among the country’s strongest-performing provinces in terms of affordability.

Researchers identified five provinces  Balkh, Daykundi, Faryab, Jawzjan and Kunar  as facing a particularly dangerous combination of severe food insecurity and below-median purchasing power. According to the report, these provinces suffer not only from elevated hunger risks, but also from households’ limited ability to purchase food from local markets.

Food prices themselves also varied sharply across Afghanistan.

The national median price of low-quality wheat flour stood at 29.3 afghanis per kilogram in May, while high-quality flour averaged 31.7 afghanis per kilogram. In Nuristan, where purchasing power was lowest, low-quality flour sold for around 35 afghanis per kilogram  among the highest prices recorded nationwide.

The findings come as Afghanistan continues to face deep economic pressures despite limited economic recovery. The World Bank recently estimated Afghanistan’s economic growth at 4.8 percent in 2025, but warned that rapid population growth, rising inflation, shrinking international aid and declining household incomes continue to erode living standards across the country.

Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly warned that millions of Afghans remain vulnerable to hunger, poverty and displacement as the country struggles with high unemployment, climate-related shocks, prolonged drought conditions and the return of large numbers of migrants from neighboring countries.

According to Data for Afghanistan, the report draws on food-price monitoring conducted by the World Food Programme and food-security projections developed through the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification system, one of the world’s most widely used measures for assessing hunger and humanitarian need.

The report concludes that while food remains available in markets across much of Afghanistan, affordability  especially for families relying on unstable daily wages continues to be one of the country’s greatest barriers to food security.

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