Under Lula, Amazon Deforestation Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade But Challenges Remain

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has fallen to its lowest level in ten years during the first half of 2026, according to official government data released Friday. The figures mark a significant milestone in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s ambitious campaign to curb the destruction of the world’s largest tropical rainforest, while also setting the stage for a heated presidential election later this year.

Between January and June, an estimated 1,295 square kilometers (500 square miles) of forest were cleared in the Brazilian Amazon a 38 percent reduction compared with the same period in 2025, and the smallest total for a first-half period since 2016, according to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The decline extends a downward trend that began shortly after Lula took office in 2023, following years of surging destruction under his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

A Sharp Reversal After the Bolsonaro Era

Under Bolsonaro, who presided from 2019 to 2022, deforestation in the Amazon reached its highest levels in more than a decade. In 2022 alone, an area roughly 13 times the size of New York City nearly 10,500 square kilometers  was cleared, driven by policies that encouraged agribusiness expansion, illegal logging, and wildcat mining. Bolsonaro openly advocated for “sustainable development” in the rainforest, but critics accused his administration of gutting environmental enforcement agencies, weakening Indigenous land protections, and emboldening land grabbers and criminal networks.

Lula, who previously served two terms as president from 2003 to 2011, made environmental protection a centerpiece of his 2022 campaign. His narrow victory over Bolsonaro was widely seen as a repudiation of the latter’s anti-conservation agenda, and Lula quickly moved to restore oversight and funding for environmental agencies. By the end of his first year back in office, annual deforestation had already been cut in half, and it has continued to decline steadily since.

A Pledge to End Illegal Deforestation by 2030

The latest figures come just months before Brazil’s October presidential election, in which the 80-year-old Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. His government has repeatedly pledged to end illegal deforestation entirely by 2030 a commitment Lula reiterated in response to Friday’s data. “This is not a decision by any COP or by the United Nations,” he said, referring to the UN climate conferences. “It is a decision of our government.”

Researchers have credited Brazil with driving a global decline in rainforest loss last year, as Lula’s administration relaunched an ambitious anti-deforestation action plan, increased penalties for environmental crimes, and reactivated satellite monitoring systems that had been sidelined under Bolsonaro. The Amazon, which absorbs vast amounts of carbon dioxide, plays an indispensable role in regulating the global climate, and deforestation remains the leading source of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental Criticism and Economic Tensions

Despite these gains, Lula has faced sharp scrutiny from environmentalists over other aspects of his record. Critics have lambasted his government for authorizing expanded oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River a region of immense biodiversity and home to one of the world’s largest coral reef systems. Activists argue that the move contradicts Brazil’s climate commitments and risks catastrophic oil spills in ecologically sensitive waters.

Lula has also had to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, particularly with the right-wing government of U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of Bolsonaro. Trump previously condemned the prosecution of the former Brazilian president, who was sentenced last year to 27 years in prison on charges of attempting to overturn the 2022 election results. In June, the Trump administration proposed new tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing both unfair trade practices and persistent illegal deforestation despite the clear downward trend.

Lula’s government pushed back sharply, pointing to the latest INPE data as evidence that U.S. claims are outdated and unjustified. “They don’t understand the work we are doing,” Lula said, adding that his administration’s efforts transcend international pressure and reflect a domestic political consensus that the Amazon must be protected.

Election Season Looms

With polling day approaching in October, Lula is likely to face Flavio Bolsonaro Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son and a sitting senator who has emerged as the main challenger on the right. Flavio has sought to rally the same conservative base that propelled his father to power, while also attempting to moderate his environmental rhetoric in response to shifting public opinion. Still, the Bolsonaro camp has criticized Lula’s environmental policies as economically damaging, particularly to the agribusiness sector, which remains a powerful political force in Brazil.

The election is expected to be fiercely contested, and the Amazon along with broader issues of climate policy, Indigenous rights, and economic development — is likely to remain a central battleground. For now, Lula’s government is celebrating the deforestation data as a tangible victory, though environmental groups caution that lasting progress will require sustained enforcement, stronger protections for vulnerable communities, and a clear plan to transition Brazil toward a low-carbon economy.

As Lula put it in a recent address: “We are showing the world that it is possible to grow the economy and protect the forest at the same time. The Amazon is not a barrier to development it is our greatest asset.”

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