The ongoing developments in the Middle East necessitate a shift from traditional geopolitical stances. Every nation must recognize this imperative. If we fail to transcend historical enmities, rivalries, and prejudices, I fear we will enter a phase where no country can achieve true security or reassurance.
Two recent events have driven me to this conclusion. The first is Israel’s recognition of the breakaway “Republic of Somaliland” as an independent state. The second is the Transitional Council’s takeover of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra in Yemen, the subsequent demand by the Presidential Leadership Council Chairman for Emirati forces to withdraw, and the Saudi airstrike targeting a weapons shipment transported on a vessel from Fujairah. Both are dangerous developments requiring deep and serious contemplation.
Focus on the Mediterranean and Africa
The core problem in the Middle East, Africa, and the Mediterranean territorial waters lies with Israel and the nations aligning with its actions.
In Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia, Israeli interventions—whether direct or through regional proxies—constitute critical steps that stir turmoil and fuel conflicts. It is precisely for this reason that Saudi Arabia decided to draw a line, using military force to compel the UAE’s exit from Yemen.
Furthermore, Israel’s recognition of “Somaliland” is not merely a threat to Mogadishu; it poses a danger to Riyadh, Cairo, Sana’a, Nairobi, and Ankara as well.
We must not underestimate the significance of the military cooperation agreements Israel signed with Greece and South Cyprus to assert its dominance in the Mediterranean. Over six years, they have conducted more than 35 joint military drills and exercises, and billions of dollars worth of missiles and drones have been sold. The formation of an Israel-led Mediterranean basin threatens not only Turkey but also Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and all Mediterranean littoral states. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreements that may be concluded between Greece, Israel, and South Cyprus would severely restrict the freedom of movement for other nations in these waters, potentially even prohibiting them from fishing.
Why Do We Need New Alliances?
Let us be frank: due to rivalries among the region’s major powers, foreign states have become active players on our lands and in our sphere. Israel has, to date, launched attacks on seven countries. It has been able to operate with such impunity precisely because of these internal conflicts and divisions.
To be even more direct, the major regional powers—such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran—have lost significant capacity by being preoccupied with other dossiers, creating a vacuum filled by Israel with support from the United States and Britain.
Yes, there are problems these nations cannot solve among themselves. But at the very least, can’t the issues that are difficult to agree upon be temporarily set aside?
If an understanding were reached, each country could better protect its interests. For instance, imagine a Turkish-Egyptian partnership in Sudan, a Saudi-Turkish-Egyptian alliance in Somalia, and Turkey—with its historical ties—returning to play an active role in Yemen. Would that not be vastly preferable? And if Qatar, with its high competence in diplomacy and organization, were to engage in these areas, would we lose or gain?
Undoubtedly, we would gain.
A Saudi-Turkish-Egyptian Alliance Has Become a Necessity
Although relations among these three nations are no longer as strained as they once were, they are not as strong as desired. Who benefits from this distance? As we have seen in Somaliland, Sudan, and Yemen, each country suffers geopolitical losses due to the actions of Israel and its proxies.
Why not strengthen their relations and alliances since their core interests are at stake?
True, disagreements exist, most notably concerning the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Frankly, there is a psychological fear among some parties, viewing Turkey’s rising regional role as a form of expansionist “Neo-Ottomanism.” Netanyahu fueled this fear during his joint press conference with Greece and South Cyprus, aiming to create a rift between Turkey and other regional states. But anyone with sound judgment knows that a Turkish return to its imperial past is geographically and geopolitically impossible.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt cooperated with Turkey in supporting Ahmed al-Jarba’s administration in Syria. Were the results negative? Today, Egypt and Turkey hold converging positions on Somalia and Sudan, and Turkey has adjusted its stance in Libya to align more closely with Egypt’s position. If these steps are possible, why not apply them to other dossiers? The issue of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas is not an insurmountable one, provided there is a genuine will to reach an agreement.
Such an alliance would also influence other nations closely tied to these three, unleashing tremendous potential. Consequently, every country would win, and their peoples would have the chance for greater prosperity. I am convinced that Iran, upon seeing such an alliance established, would abandon the misguided policies it has pursued thus far and seek cooperation and harmony with it.
The Coming Years Will Be Chapters of Chaos
We must not forget that Israel does not desire stability in this region and will never form a genuine alliance with any Islamic state. Nations not suffering from its actions today will inevitably suffer tomorrow. The only path is for Islamic nations to unite around a minimum set of common denominators and adapt to the new geopolitical reality.
We are compelled to do this because the coming years will not be ones of stability and tranquility; quite the opposite. Europe will grow weaker and be sidelined from the equation. In this context, the Mediterranean alliance will be reshaped. The rivalry between China and the United States carries the risk of spiraling into a vortex that could engulf Russia and India as well. The storm or earthquake emanating from this could be extremely severe.
Chaotic geopolitical shifts will seriously affect economies and trade. Under such conditions, it is natural for nations with weak or dependent structures to face dangerous shocks. Therefore, it is imperative for the strong nations of the region to fortify themselves to withstand the coming “earthquakes” in their geography. Forming a resilient and strategic alliance is no longer a choice but a necessity for survival and securing a future for their peoples.
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