Diplomatic Gains and Strategic Signaling: Afghanistan’s Evolving Approach to Pakistan

Afghanistan’s recent water-resources decisions, including the recent in-principle approval of a major water transfer scheme, must be evaluated in the context of intensifying tensions with Pakistan, a diplomatic opening with India, and Afghanistan’s broader regional strategy. These developments suggest that water policy is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical positioning rather than purely domestic technical planning.

Pakistan’s Escalating Pressure and Border Tensions

In the past year, Pakistan has adopted an assertive stance toward Afghanistan. Islamabad unilaterally closed key border crossings,  including major trade routes along the Durand Line , disrupting commerce and imposing economic costs on an already fragile Afghan economy. These closures have frequently been interpreted in Kabul as politically driven responses to security tensions and cross-border clashes. Afghan authorities reported increasingly frequent military confrontations along the Durand Line, contributing to a climate of mistrust and instability.

Diplomatic Outcomes: The Doha Agreement and Afghan Leverage

In late October 2025, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed a ceasefire in Doha under Qatari and Turkish mediation, an outcome widely construed in the region as a diplomatic success for Afghanistan’s negotiating posture. Afghan leaders were able to secure a text that omitted explicit reference to the Durand Line as an international border,  an outcome Afghanistan regards as consistent with its long-held position that the frontier should be determined by local peoples, not imposed by colonial-era treaties. This semantic victory has been portrayed within Afghanistan as a diplomatic and symbolic success, enhancing the government’s standing domestically and internationally in a fraught bilateral environment.

India’s Strategic Engagement and Humanitarian Outreach

While tensions with Pakistan have escalated, India has expanded its engagement with Afghanistan, positioning itself as a strategic partner. New Delhi’s diplomatic opening including officially hosting Afghan foreign minister, substantial humanitarian contributions,  including over 16 tons of medical supplies and the delivery of 20 ambulances with medical equipment , not only address critical healthcare needs and reinforce India’s role as a supportive external actor at a time when Pakistan’s actions have been perceived as coercive. These efforts have political resonance: where Pakistan has restricted access and heightened tensions, India has invested materially in public-facing development and cooperation.

Kunar–Darunta Water Transfer: Technical Move, Strategic Signal

On December 16, 2025, Afghanistan’s Technical Committee of the Economic Commission approved in principle a proposal to transfer water from the Kunar River to the Darunta Dam basin in Nangarhar province, with the aim of alleviating agricultural water shortages in eastern Afghanistan. This decision was referred to the Economic Commission for final approval, demonstrating institutional momentum behind significant water-management decisions.

While the immediate rationale emphasizes agricultural relief and domestic development, the Kunar–Darunta transfer project sits within a broader pattern of upstream water initiatives that may have downstream consequences for Pakistan. The Kunar River, a tributary that ultimately feeds into Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa irrigation systems, is already a focus of Afghan water policy debate, including earlier plans for dam construction and potential diversion.

Water Diplomacy, Treaty Absence and Strategic Leverage

A central factor in the geopolitical interpretation of these moves is legal and institutional asymmetry. Afghanistan and Pakistan lack a formal water-management treaty, unlike India and Pakistan, which historically managed river flows under the Indus Waters Treaty before its recent suspension. Afghanistan’s absence of any binding water agreement with Pakistan grants Kabul broad unilateral discretion over transboundary waters, a flexibility Islamabad cannot easily counter through legal mechanisms.

This lack of treaty obligations means that decisions like the Kunar–Darunta transfer, upstream storage projects, or future diversions are governed by domestic planning rather than negotiated frameworks. As a result, Afghanistan’s water projects can be implemented without formal consultation or dispute-resolution mechanisms with Pakistan, elevating water policy to a domain with direct geostrategic implications.

Intersecting Strategic Trajectories

The confluence of these dimensions highlights a widening gap between how Afghanistan engages with Pakistan and how it aligns with India:

1. Pakistan’s coercive border and security measures have exacerbated mistrust and spurred Afghanistan to seek alternate strategic alignments.
2. India’s Political, humanitarian and development engagement has bolstered its influence in Kabul at a moment of heightened bilateral tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
3. Afghanistan’s autonomous water policy,  including the Kunar–Darunta initiative,  operates outside any treaty framework, amplifying the potential for transboundary impact.

Taken together, these trends suggest that Afghanistan’s water policy is less a neutral domestic infrastructure matter and more a component of broader regional strategic recalibration. By advancing upstream projects without Pakistan’s consent or institutional constraints, Afghanistan, whether intentionally or in response to external pressure,  strengthens its leverage and aligns more closely with India’s posture regarding contested water politics.

Implications for Regional Stability

The integration of water management into high-stakes diplomacy and security tensions marks a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics. Water, once treated largely as a technical or localized development challenge, is increasingly a vehicle for interstate leverage. Pakistan now confronts competing pressures: a suspended treaty framework with India and an unconstrained upstream neighbors in Afghanistan.

For Afghanistan, asserting control over water resources reflects both assertions of sovereignty and strategic positioning. For India, engagement in Afghanistan extends influence and counters Pakistan’s regional role. For Pakistan, the combined pressures from upstream water policy and deteriorating security relations complicate an already challenging landscape of resource scarcity and political rivalry.

In this context, Afghanistan’s latest water management moves, including the formal approval in principle of the Kunar–Darunta transfer project, should be analyzed not as isolated bureaucratic decisions but as part of a broader strategic posture shaped by shifting alliances and contested regional priorities.

Between Tehran and the United Nations: Kabul Prioritizes National Interests Over External Agendas

Our Pashto-Dari Website

  Donate Here