Oil prices extended their rally on Friday as diplomatic efforts to end the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-led coalition remained deadlocked. Tehran continues to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz, while the US Navy has imposed a blockade on Iranian crude exports, escalating concerns over global energy supplies.
By 0421 GMT, Brent crude futures for July rose $1.04, or 0.94%, to $111.44 per barrel, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 41 cents, or 0.39%, to $105.48 per barrel.
Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months. The now-expired June Brent contract hit $126.41 a barrel on Thursday its highest level since March 2022 before settling lower.
A Conflict That Shook Energy Markets
Oil prices have been climbing sharply since late February, when coordinated military action by the United States and Israel targeted Iranian facilities, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a critical chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply transits. In March alone, Brent crude surged by 50%, marking one of the steepest monthly rises in decades.
A tentative ceasefire has been in place since April 8, but hopes for a swift resolution are fading.
Diplomacy Stalls as Threats Resurface
On Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei poured cold water on expectations for a breakthrough, telling the official IRNA news agency that “expecting to reach a result in a short time, regardless of who the mediator is, is not very realistic.”
Earlier that same day, a senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened “long and painful strikes” on US positions in the region if Washington renewed attacks on Iranian territory. The remarks briefly sent oil prices to intraday peaks before they pared some gains.
What’s at Stake?
Analysts warn that without a diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices could climb further, potentially surpassing $150 per barrel if the strait remains closed for an extended period. The stalemate has already prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to warn of heightened risks to global economic stability, with inflation pressures likely to intensify.
Looking Ahead
All eyes are now on Washington and Tehran, as well as potential mediators such as Oman and Qatar. While no new talks have been announced, analysts suggest that behind-the-scenes negotiations may intensify if both sides seek to avoid a full-scale regional war.
For now, the market remains on edge and oil keeps rising.
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