Influx of Returnees Overwhelms a Crippled Afghanistan, UNDP Warns

KABUL – The return of more than 2.3 million Afghans since 2021 has placed an unsustainable burden on a nation already brought to its knees by decades of conflict, economic collapse, and climate disasters, according to a new report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This massive, involuntary return is intensifying competition for scarce resources and pushing the country’s fragile systems to the brink.

A Pre-Existing Crisis of Collapsed Resilience

The UNDP report underscores that Afghanistan was already in a state of profound crisis before the latest wave of returnees. Decades of war have shattered infrastructure and institutions, while persistent drought and recent, devastating natural disasters have eroded traditional coping mechanisms.

• Economic Paralysis: Following the Taliban takeover in 2021, the formal economy contracted severely. The freezing of international assets and the cessation of direct development aid crippled government functions and led to widespread job losses.

• Climate Shocks: A series of powerful earthquakes in Nangarhar, Kunar, and Samangan provinces, compounded by sudden floods and a severe, multi-year drought, have destroyed agricultural land and livestock—the primary livelihood for most rural Afghans.

• Widespread Destitution: The cumulative effect is a population on the edge. The report states that over three-quarters of Afghan families are now “livelihood insecure,” and in 2024, a staggering 95% of the population experienced severe economic hardship.

Returnees Arrive into a Vacuum, Intensifying Strain

The 2.3 million returnees, many of whom were forcibly expelled from neighboring countries, are arriving not as a potential economic boost, but as a population in acute distress.

• Arriving with Nothing: Most return involuntarily, lacking savings, assets, or even official documentation like birth certificates and diplomas, which are essential for accessing services or proving qualifications.

• Competition and Social Tension: Their arrival has dramatically intensified competition for the few available daily wage jobs, driving down wages. Furthermore, they are competing with host communities for already strained resources like clean water and affordable housing, raising rents and creating potential for social friction.

• Systemic Overload: Health clinics, schools, and water points, already struggling with reduced foreign aid, are now servicing populations far beyond their capacity.

Disproportionate Impact on Women and Girls

The crisis is not gender-neutral. Women and girls, particularly those who are the sole breadwinners for their families, bear the heaviest burden.

• Female-Headed Households: In some provinces, one in every four returnee households is now headed by a woman, who faces immense cultural and legal barriers to earning an income.

• Shrinking Opportunities: With severe restrictions on women’s education and employment, their ability to access healthcare, secure livelihoods, and participate in public life has been drastically curtailed. The UNDP stresses that “removing these barriers and investing in women’s participation in the local economy is not just a moral imperative, but a crucial step for family stability, regional peace, and long-term recovery.”

A Glimmer of Hope Amidst the Crisis

Despite the overwhelming challenges, the UNDP report identifies a potential pathway for recovery. Returnees are not merely a burden; they bring with them skills, diverse experiences, and a powerful determination to rebuild their lives in their homeland.

• An Untapped Resource: Many have worked in construction, trade, and agriculture in their host countries, possessing valuable skills that could be channeled into local reconstruction efforts.

• A Potential Catalyst for Growth: With targeted international support—investing in public works programs, small business grants, and vocational training—the returnee population could be transformed from a drain on resources into the primary engine of Afghanistan’s recovery. This could drive local reconstruction, stimulate markets, and ultimately strengthen social cohesion.

The UNDP concludes that without a significant scale-up of coordinated humanitarian aid and development-focused investment, the situation will deteriorate further. The international community faces a critical choice: allow a perfect storm of crises to consume Afghanistan, or harness the resilience of its people to forge a path toward stability.

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