An Iranian politician has asserted that the United States may be considering a military return to Afghanistan, driven by recent geopolitical shifts in the Middle East. Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, secretary-general of Iran’s Green Party, made the remarks in an interview with the Iranian media outlet IRAF on Tuesday. He suggested that Washington might be weighing a plan to redeploy forces to Afghanistan, potentially shifting a portion of its troops from Gulf bases as part of a broader regional strategy .
According to Kanani Moghaddam, a renewed U.S. presence in Afghanistan is seen by some in Washington as a strategic move to limit the westward expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and to exert pressure on the growing cooperation between Beijing and Tehran . He argued that U.S. policymakers may view Afghanistan as a vital platform to pursue broader strategic objectives and regain influence lost after the withdrawal of American troops in 2021.
The United States ended its 20-year military mission in Afghanistan in August 2021, when the Taliban returned to power. Since then, Washington has maintained no military presence on the ground, relying instead on what it terms “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism capabilities a strategy of conducting strikes and surveillance from outside the country, which has been subject to significant debate regarding its effectiveness .
Kanani Moghaddam did not provide evidence for his claim, and U.S. officials have not announced any intention to redeploy troops. However, his comments align with recent speculations from other Iranian figures. For instance, a member of Iran’s parliament warned that a U.S. return to Bagram Air Base would be met with regional resistance, potentially turning it into a “graveyard for American soldiers” . Other Iranian analysts and diplomats have voiced serious concerns about the possibility, suggesting that Washington views Bagram described as the “missing piece” of a strategic quadrilateral with bases in Turkey, Bahrain, and Qatar as crucial for regional influence and monitoring rivals like Iran, China, and Russia .
The scenario is further complicated by a recent public warning from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who called on the Taliban to return Bagram Air Base to the U.S., threatening “bad things” would happen otherwise. The Taliban swiftly rejected this, declaring Bagram as Afghan territory and calling for diplomatic engagement .
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