The Impact of Ebrahim Raisi’s Death on Afghanistan and Regional Dynamics

May 20, 2024

The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves through the region, especially Afghanistan, a country already fraught with political and economic turmoil.

The latest development involving Raisi’s untimely demise now brings another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile landscape. Neighboring Iran, which relatively shares a long border with Afghanistan, also faces sporadic clashes over water crises and issues related to human and drug trafficking along the borderline.

Raisi’s Controversial Legacy and Internal Iranian Politics

Dr. Mahbob Shah Mahbob, a former lecturer at Kabul University, took to social media platform X, formerly Twitter, sharing insights on how Raisi’s death could reshape regional political dynamics. Mahbob highlighted Raisi’s controversial stance on the Afghan water issue and labeled him a notorious figure closely allied with Iran’s Supreme Leader. Despite his reputation and influence, Raisi was not as favored as the Supreme Leader’s son, hinting at deeper internal politics within Iran.

Raisi’s tenure was marked by significant events and policies. Known as a “hardliner,” he played a crucial role in Iran’s judicial system and maintained a firm grip on internal dissent. His efforts in reconstructing —ties with Saudi Arabia, facilitated by China, were noteworthy, as were his attempts to navigate the complex geopolitical regional instability involving India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. Raisi’s administration also saw Iran normalizing relations with parts of the Arab world, a significant shift in regional politics.

Regional Dynamics and Speculation

Ali Bagheri Kani, a close associate of Raisi, has been appointed as Iran’s Acting foreign minister. However, the history of Iranian presidents being assassinated or killed in office adds a layer of intrigue and speculation about the future. Mahbob said that “while Raisi’s death might not immediately impact the region, the evolving situation could change that.”

During his presidency, Raisi faced considerable opposition domestically. His administration was criticized for harshly suppressing protests, and his death leaves a power vacuum at a critical juncture.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister, accused the United States of indirectly causing the crash by embargoing the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran. This has compounded Iran’s aviation challenges, often forcing the use of outdated and unsafe equipment.

The geopolitical landscape, already complex with ongoing conflicts like the Hamas-Israel war, could see further shifts. Raisi’s efforts to restore ties with Saudi Arabia, coupled with the fragile peace with Israel, are now in jeopardy. Internally, Iran could face significant turmoil if an “invisible outsider hand” is suspected in Raisi’s death, as expressed by Dr. Abdul Ghafoor Liwal, former Afghan ambassador to Iran. Liwal emphasized the need for a thorough investigation to determine whether the crash was due to internal or external factors, stating that Iran’s strong leadership would handle internal issues swiftly.

Raisi’s death comes at a time when regional dynamics are already tense. From Ukraine to Afghanistan, the region is a part of a larger geopolitical struggle. The Afghan-Pakistan border remains a hotspot for opposition activities, with regional powers like China, Russia, the US, and NATO having vested interests. Pakistan, grappling with its economic crisis, continues to play a complex role, often leveraging its strategic position for international support.

Abdul Ghafoor Liwal also noted the importance of Afghanistan to Iran, especially under current sanctions. Iran’s need for trade and business with Afghanistan, particularly “in sectors like mining, water, agriculture, and poultry.” remains critical. “Afghanistan offers economic and security opportunities, making its stability vital for Iran,”Liwal said.

In the near term, the impact of Raisi’s death will likely be felt more within Iran than across the region. The Supreme Leader remains the ultimate authority, and while Raisi was a trusted ally, his death may accelerate internal power struggles. The competition within Iran’s coercive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and various military and intelligence factions, could intensify, potentially sidelining clerical leadership further.

The pillars of Iran’s foreign policy, such as the “axis of resistance” involving China and Russia, and broader regional dialogue, will likely remain unchanged. However, the immediate diplomatic relations, particularly with countries like Saudi Arabia, could face temporary setbacks. Raisi’s trusted diplomats, including Amir-Abdollahian, played key roles in these relationships, and rebuilding these ties will take time.

The loss of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian presents both challenges and opportunities for Iran. As the country navigates this new reality, the region watches closely. The evolving situation will test the resilience and adaptability of Iran’s political system and its ability to maintain stability amid changing leadership dynamics.